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The grading point is where margin is really made or lost. A depot that mixes supermarket board with mixed paper destroys value before the mill ever sees it. If you are sourcing, audit how the upstream station sorts, not just the price quote. Clean, dry yellow board consistently earns the top of the range, while mixed grades get pooled and discounted.
Watch the door-to-channel spread as a sentiment signal. When it widens, packing stations are absorbing risk and expect prices to rise; when it compresses, they are pushing cost back onto collectors. Anyone holding inventory should track that spread weekly rather than fixating on the headline number.
The lesson is about position in the chain, not price direction. Windfalls went to whoever could hold inventory and wait. Small collectors with no storage and same-day cash needs are structurally unable to capture rallies. If you want upside exposure, the ability to stockpile and finance the wait matters more than the buying price.