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The key signal is that scrap pricing is now grade-driven, not region-driven. Traders who invested in shearing, baling and sorting captured better margins because they could upgrade light material into furnace-ready product. Anyone still selling unsorted light scrap into a converter-dominated market is competing on price alone.
The practical takeaway is grade segregation, not volume. Dismantlers who sort armor plate, hull steel and alloy components into separate streams can place material with electric furnace and specialty producers. Unsorted heavy melt destined for a BOF is a discount, not a premium. Pre-processing is where the margin sits.
Supply growth alone won't lift the scrap ratio. The binding constraints are collection economics, tax treatment and whether electric furnace capacity actually gets built. Watch the spread between scrap and hot metal: when scrap is cheaper per tonne than iron, converters quietly raise their charge ratio regardless of long-term forecasts.