How large will China's scrap steel resource base grow by 2030?

How large will China's scrap steel resource base grow by 2030?
China's steel accumulation reached about 13 billion tonnes in 2000, 40 billion in 2010 and 100 billion by 2020, with scrap resources around 250 million tonnes. Engineering forecasts put social steel stock at 12 billion tonnes by 2025 and 13 billion by 2030, lifting scrap resources to 300 million and then over 350 million tonnes. Depreciation scrap from retired equipment, vehicles, ships and buildings is the main growth driver. China's scrap ratio is only about 20%, far below the global 35-45% average, so the resource base is expanding fast while utilization still lags. Supportive policy could push volumes well above these projections.