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Watch the timing closely. A 2026 notice shows China pausing agricultural phosphate exports from March 14 to August 31, then fully resuming from September 1. That window suggests a deliberate seasonal strategy rather than a permanent ban. Importers should plan purchases around that reopening.
The real cost pressure comes from sulfur and ammonia. Sulfur prices in China have fallen sharply from peaks, which is a clear positive for DAP producers' margins. But phosphate rock remains the strategic bottleneck, so companies with captive mines will keep their cost advantage over merchant producers.