Poor market sentiment has led to a downward trend in prices, with the market following the prevailing momentum.

1. Today's Summary

① Approximately 2,000 tons of domestic sulfur resources arrived at Zhenjiang Port.

② National port inventory stood at 1.1038 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.37%.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Sulfur Port Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Taking Zhenjiang Port as the benchmark, today’s mainstream granular price settled at 5,400 CNY/ton, consistent with morning expectations. USD-denominated market prices continued to decline. Among domestic spot sellers, a few expressed willingness to offload inventory. Facing rare buy inquiries that consistently attempted to press for lower prices, these sellers were forced to make adjustments, causing the market trend to move downward. Regarding external markets, reports indicated that the latest Indonesian spot transaction price dropped to CFR $850-860/ton. Additionally, some buyers rejected current offers, insisting on waiting for even lower quotes. The atmosphere in the domestic spot market remained quiet and weak, leading quickly to rumors of sporadic low-price transactions. As new developments emerged over time, it was reported that small-scale inter-dealer trades occurred around 5,500 CNY/ton, while seller intentions to offload inventory dropped as low as 5,400 CNY/ton.

Figure 1: Trend of Domestic Sulfur Port Spot Index Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

3. Market Sentiment

Table 2: Sentiment Forecast from Upstream and Downstream Industry Participants in the Domestic Sulfur Market

4. Price Forecast

Current market participants remain hesitant regarding their stance on the market, lacking confidence in future performance. Even where buy interest exists, the preference for absorbing supply only at low prices is evident. Consequently, holders continue to face psychological pressure, suggesting that the short-term market may continue its downward trend.

5. Related Products Status

Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market showed no significant change in overall trends. Ex-factory prices for 55% powder in Hubei hovered around 3,600 CNY/ton, with transactions maintained through actual negotiation. Major producers continued to implement minimum guaranteed price policies, setting the ex-factory minimum guarantee for 55% powder at 3,850 CNY/ton; new orders were generally average. The autumn fertilizer season is entering its final stage, focusing primarily on digesting finished product inventory. Raw material replenishment enthusiasm remains low, limited mainly to small-volume essential purchases, keeping demand weak. Today, the ex-factory price for diammonium phosphate (DAP) 64% ranged between 4,700–4,850 CNY/ton, with actual transactions also subject to negotiation. The domestic DAP market continues to exhibit a weak consolidation pattern. Although autumn fertilizer demand has not completely ended and grassroots sales persist, downstream restocking enthusiasm is low, with most maintaining small-volume procurement based on needs. Market transaction activity is mediocre, and pessimistic sentiment shows no obvious signs of easing.

Sulfuric Acid Market: The national sulfuric acid market experienced narrow-range fluctuations. In Northwest China, the market remained largely stable overall, though regional trends showed slight divergence. Main acid enterprises in Longzhong, Gansu, saw improved shipment conditions, with downstream industries maintaining regular procurement. Enterprise inventories steadily declined, alleviating supply pressure and fostering a positive market sentiment. In Qinghai, main acid enterprises experienced smooth outbound shipments, with inventories remaining low and under no pressure; plans are in place to raise prices by 100 CNY/ton on October 26. Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals in the Northwest region remain relatively stable, with local improvements observed. Short-term adjustments will be made flexibly based on inventory and shipment conditions. The Inner Mongolia market continued its weakness. In Eastern Inner Mongolia, main acid enterprises lowered quotes by another 50 CNY/ton to reduce inventory pressure. A "follow-the-drop" sentiment intensified within the region; due to insufficient willingness among downstream buyers to take delivery, actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis, with the center of gravity in negotiations continuing to shift downward. Western Inner Mongolia remained temporarily stable but cautious; however, with hindered outbound shipments and accumulating inventories, actual transactions have already seen varying degrees of discounting. Main production units operated stably, with limited maintenance activities within the region, resulting in ample overall supply. On the demand side, fertilizer has entered its off-season, and compound fertilizers are focused on digesting inventory. In the chemical sector, there is anticipation for news regarding the restart of main hydrofluoric acid plants in Western Inner Mongolia, making incremental demand unlikely at present. Outbound shipments toward Hebei and Liaoning are impacted by low-priced goods from neighboring areas, slowing down shipment pace. Currently, the core contradiction in the market lies in inventory pressure. Main acid enterprises have a clear intent to cut prices to deplete inventory, suggesting that regional acid prices may still have room for minor declines in the short term. Looking ahead, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to remain in volatile consolidation, with strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

6. Data Calendar

Table 3: Domestic Sulfur Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)