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Watch the substitution angle: as sulfur hits record highs, domestic pyrite-based acid is becoming profitable again, reviving a sector squeezed out over the past two decades. Also, downstream sulfuric acid consumers—titanium dioxide via the sulfate route and battery precursor makers—are seeing acid costs add 800-1,200 yuan per ton of output, squeezing already thin margins. The real question is how long demand from phosphate fertilizers and new energy can sustain these prices before demand destruction kicks in.
Don't overlook the food-safety angle: industrial-grade sulfur is strictly banned in food processing due to heavy metal impurities like arsenic and lead, yet media exposés show it being used on goji berries and star anise. This regulatory risk could tighten supply further if enforcement intensifies, as food-grade sulfur requires higher purification. For traders, this adds another layer of complexity—quality certification is becoming as important as price in sourcing decisions.
The real hedge is domestic production. China's sulfur output reached 10.74 million tons in 2025, about 13% of global supply, but capacity utilization is tied to refinery runs and gas processing, not market signals. With energy transition lowering refinery utilization, domestic output growth is capped. That's why the market is pricing in sustained tightness—new sulfur recovery capacity planned for 2026 adds only 500,000 tons/year, against projected demand growth of over 3 million tons from new phosphate, titanium dioxide, and lithium iron phosphate plants.