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The green premium is real but don't overstate its near-term price impact. Green ammonia still costs 2-3x grey ammonia, and most Chinese projects are export-oriented or tied to policy mandates. Domestic fertilizer buyers will keep pricing off coal-to-ammonia economics. Watch urea export policy as the real swing factor for domestic prices this year.
Fuel availability is the real constraint. Even if engines work perfectly, ammonia bunkering infrastructure doesn't exist yet. Methanol has a 3-5 year head start because it's liquid at ambient conditions and easier to handle. Ammonia's toxicity requires new safety protocols across ports and vessels. First movers like Maersk are betting on methanol for this decade, ammonia for the next.
Don't underestimate the infrastructure advantage of Haber-Bosch. Existing ammonia plants, pipelines, and storage networks are built around it. Electrochemical synthesis would need entirely new supply chains. The more practical decarbonization lever is retrofitting existing plants with green hydrogen feedstocks, which several Chinese producers are already piloting.