Weekly Outlook for the Ethylene Glycol Market

I. Key Focus Points

1. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, keeping crude oil prices at high levels.
2. Ethylene glycol (EG) inventory at major East China ports stood at 101,000 tons, up by 15,000 tons compared to the previous statistical period.
3. The total installed capacity for EG is 30.819 million tons/year, with a capacity utilization rate of 64.24%.
4. The total installed capacity for polyester is 91.025 million tons/year, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%.

Core Logic: The impact of geopolitical changes has weakened; expectations of ample supply have led to a downward trend in the market.

II. Price Table

Notes:

1. All product prices refer to national standard premium-grade products.
2. Units: Crude oil is in USD/barrel; Naphtha (CFR Japan) and PX (CFR China) are in USD/ton; the other three varieties are priced in CNY/ton.
3. All CNY prices listed above are ex-warehouse, tax-inclusive cash prices.
4. The two price points represent spot prices from the last two working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages.
5. The change rate refers to the week-on-week percentage change.

III. Data Table

Ethylene Glycol Industry Supply & Demand Data

Notes:

1. Capacity utilization rate reflects production indicators, calculated as the ratio of actual output from producers' devices to their installed capacity. The data above represents current-period figures.
2. Production profit is an industry-level metric reflecting the overall profitability of mainstream varieties in major regions. The data above represents weekly averages, specifically selecting the profit margin for naphtha-based ethylene glycol, measured in USD/ton.
3. Major port inventory refers to ethylene glycol stocks at key ports in East China, indicating inventory trends and pressure. The data above represents current inventory levels, measured in ten-thousand tons.
4. Polyester operating load refers to the overall operational intensity of polyester enterprises. The data above represents current-period figures.

IV. Market Outlook

Crude oil remains in an upward trend, providing strong support on the cost side for ethylene glycol. However, as the supply structure shifts from tightness to expectations of ample supply, bullish confidence in the market is difficult to sustain. The market is expected to continue adjusting downward this week. The reference trading range for the East China market is estimated at 5,800–6,000 CNY/ton.

V. Data Calendar