Ethylene oxide prices remain stable.

1. Today's Summary

1. Oct 8: The US-Iran negotiation channel remains open, and the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates, causing international oil prices to fall. NYMEX crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $88.28/bbl, down $1.16/bbl (-1.30%); ICE Brent crude futures (December contract) closed at $100.20/bbl, down $0.38/bbl (-0.38%). China INE crude oil futures were suspended due to the National Day holiday. Instability in the Middle East situation continued, and hurricanes led to shutdowns of some offshore US oil wells, causing international oil prices to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures (November contract) rose to $91.49/bbl, up $3.21/bbl (+3.64%); ICE Brent crude futures (December contract) rose to $104.28/bbl, up $4.08/bbl (+4.07%). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2611) rose by 41.3 to 737.4 yuan/bbl during the day session, but fell by 4.6 to 732.8 yuan/bbl in the night session.

2. Oct 8: Port ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price was $1,150/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Ethylene oxide prices remained stable today. On the supply side, falling monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have reduced the incentive for co-production units to produce MEG, so there is no significant increase in ethylene oxide supply. Main downstream industries have limited absorption capacity, with market transactions driven primarily by rigid demand. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices softened, leading downstream buyers to source from various locations; transactions are mostly based on immediate needs. Overall, fundamentals for ethylene oxide show no obvious changes, and prices are expected to remain stable. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream dynamics.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the operating rate of the Chinese ethylene oxide industry was 54.04%. As of the last working day, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced using imported ethylene was 1,768.59 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced using domestically sourced ethylene was 1,612.5 yuan/ton today, showing a month-on-month increase.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. On the supply side, declining MEG prices reduce the incentive for co-production units to operate MEG lines, keeping ethylene oxide plant utilization steady with no significant increase in available supply. On the demand side, main downstream industries are following rigid demand, while market sentiment remains cautious, limiting absorption capacity for ethylene oxide. On the cost side, ethylene prices are weakly stable, and available sellable inventory has increased, providing limited cost support for ethylene oxide. Overall, with some support from the supply side, ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is required.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Today, ethylene prices in East China moved slightly upward within a narrow range, with mainstream transaction prices between 9,000-9,100 yuan/ton. Due to low regional supply pressure, producers' willingness to offer discounts has decreased, and low-priced offers are gradually disappearing. Inquiries from derivative markets remain focused on rigid demand, with no significant improvement in trading volume. Regarding USD pricing, although the repair of long-distance crude oil pipelines is progressing faster than expected, the shipping market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, with price ranges likely hovering around $1,140-$1,180/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Main Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may trend slightly weaker. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, is expected to remain stable. Spot resources have seen a slight increase, with sellers offering small discounts to move inventory. Downstream industries are consuming cautiously based on rigid demand. Ethylene producers are reluctant to continue offering discounts, so prices are likely to remain stable, providing limited cost-side support. Within the monomer market, sales are mainly occurring at lower prices, with overall trading activity sluggish. Most downstream buyers are watching from the sidelines, purchasing small lots as needed, with transactions negotiated based on volume. In summary, the EPEG price in the key East China market is expected to be in the range of 10,300-10,500 yuan/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical situations have shifted, and crude oil remains strong, but its impact on MEG has weakened. Regarding supply, sustained recovery in economic benefits has led to a noticeable rise in domestic MEG operating rates, significantly easing the tight supply pattern. On the demand side, polyester cash flow performance is poor, with operating rates remaining low, suggesting that the downward trend for MEG will continue. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup price in East China is expected to be in the range of 5,800-5,900 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)