Weakening Supply-Demand Expectations Lead to a High Open and Low Close for Ethylene Glycol (October 8–10, 2026)

1. Key Points This Week:

• Domestic MEG production this week: 417,900 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from last week (+0.46% WoW).
• MEG capacity utilization rate this week: 64.51%, up 0.30 percentage points (pp) WoW.
• MEG inventory at major East China ports this week: 101,000 tons, up 17.44% WoW.
• Capacity utilization rate of main downstream polyester sector this week: 72.12%; production volume was 1,337,000 tons, down 0.62% WoW.
• Integrated industry profit for MEG this week: -$185.00/ton, a decrease of 41.22% WoW.

2. Review of the Domestic MEG Market:

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Table 1: Weekly MEG Price Fluctuation Analysis in China
(Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

During the week, the highest price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 6,525 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 5,700 CNY/ton. The weekly average price in Zhangjiagang was 6,027 CNY/ton, representing a decline of 7.22%.

The Zhangjiagang MEG market generally followed a "high open, low close" trend this week. On the first trading day after the holiday, chemical commodities rose broadly; however, the upward momentum was clearly insufficient. By the second trading day, although the broader chemical sector remained strong, MEG prices corrected significantly as the market adjusted to expectations of loose supply, with high premiums reverting to normal levels. Prices fell sharply to recent lows.

3. Analysis of Factors Influencing the MEG Market This Week:

• Crude Oil: During this period (October 1–7, 2026), international crude oil prices declined, with average prices also falling. As of October 7, WTI was priced at $88.28/barrel, down 4.94% from October 1; Brent was priced at $100.20/barrel, down 2.06% from October 1.
• Domestic Production: Domestic MEG production this week was 417,900 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from last week (+0.46% WoW).
• Capacity Utilization: The overall domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was 64.51%, up 0.30 pp WoW. Specifically, integrated plants operated at 63.55% utilization (+0.33 pp WoW), while coal-based MEG plants operated at 66.16% utilization (+0.25 pp WoW).
• Downstream Demand: The capacity utilization rate of the main downstream polyester sector was 72.12%, with production totaling 1,337,000 tons, down 0.62% WoW.
• Supply-Demand Balance: Expectations are rising for increased domestic supply and higher import volumes, leading to an anticipated increase in total supply. While there is some expectation for improved polyester operating rates on the demand side, the magnitude of this improvement is expected to be limited.
• Inventory: MEG inventory at major East China ports this week stood at 101,000 tons, up 17.44% WoW.
• Profit Margins: Integrated industry profit for MEG was -$185.00/ton this week, a decrease of 41.22% WoW.

4. Next Week's MEG Market Forecast

Geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, but crude oil prices remain at elevated levels. With expectations of loose supply in the MEG market, the short-term downward trend is unlikely to reverse immediately. Spot delivery prices in East China are forecasted to range between 5,800 and 6,100 CNY/ton next week. For more in-depth market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information MEG Weekly Report.