Ethylene oxide prices remain at elevated levels.

1. Daily Summary

1. October 9: International crude oil prices fell as communication channels between the US and Iran remained open, combined with the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. NYMEX WTI November futures settled at $88.28/bbl, down $1.16/bbl (-1.30% WoW); ICE Brent December futures closed at $100.20/bbl, down $0.38/bbl (-0.38% WoW). China's INE crude oil futures market was closed for the National Day holiday. Subsequently, international crude oil prices rose due to ongoing instability in the Middle East and hurricane-induced shutdowns of some offshore US wells. NYMEX WTI November futures rose to $91.49/bbl, up $3.21/bbl (+3.64% WoW); ICE Brent December futures climbed to $104.28/bbl, up $4.08/bbl (+4.07% WoW). China's INE crude oil November 2026 contract rose by CNY 41.3 to CNY 737.4/bbl, while the night session dropped by CNY 4.6 to CNY 732.8/bbl.

2. October 9: The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene spot price (USD basis) stood at $1,130/ton, a decrease from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices held steady at high levels today. On the supply side, fluctuating MEG prices have weakened the incentive for co-production units to produce MEG, resulting in no new EO supply. Major downstream industries are purchasing based on rigid demand, limiting their absorption capacity for EO. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices edged slightly higher, but downstream derivative markets remain driven by rigid demand, with no significant improvement in transaction volumes. Overall, EO fundamentals remain stable, with prices continuing to hold steady. Attention should be paid to future changes in upstream and downstream dynamics.

[Figure 1: 2026 Domestic EO Price Trend Chart (CNY/ton)]
[Figure 2: 2025-2026 Domestic Regional Price Trend Charts (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the operating rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 54.04%. As of the last trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced via imported ethylene was CNY 1,887.49/ton. Today's theoretical profit for EO produced via domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 1,612.5/ton, unchanged from the previous period.

[Figure 3: 2025-2026 Domestic EO Operating Rate Trend Chart]
[Figure 4: 2025-2026 Domestic EO Profit & Price Comparison Chart (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable at high levels. On the supply side, operating rates for on-site EO units are steady; units that underwent maintenance earlier have not yet restarted, so there is no significant increase in available supply. With MEG market prices trending weakly, co-production units may shift towards EO production. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices have edged slightly higher, but there is no immediate supply pressure, and the downstream derivative market remains focused on rigid demand. Overall, fundamentals show no significant volatility. Future attention should be directed towards changes in the upstream and downstream sectors.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Currently, spot circulation pressure for domestic producers is manageable, and market offers remain firm. With no clear macroeconomic guidance, the derivative market is fluctuating within a narrow range. Downstream buyers are cautious regarding new orders, leading to limited trading activity. Ethylene prices are expected to consolidate sideways in the next trading day, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from CNY 9,000-9,100/ton. Regarding USD-denominated transactions, shipping availability remains tight, suggesting the USD market will stay firm, with prices likely hovering around $1,120-$1,180/ton.

② EPEG (Key Downstream Product): Domestic EPEG prices may decline slightly. The key raw material, EO, is expected to remain temporarily stable. Spot resources are being sold with slight discounts, while downstream industries across various sectors maintain only rigid consumption due to weak demand. There is an expectation of increased sellable resources from ethylene producers, which could lead to a slight price drop, offering limited support from the cost side. Low-priced EPEG inventory in the market has increased, but downstream purchases are primarily for rigid demand, with limited follow-up buying; transactions are negotiated based on volume. In summary, EPEG prices in the main East China market are forecasted to range between CNY 10,000-10,500/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (MEG - Related Product): Geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, but crude oil prices remain high. With a loose supply outlook for MEG, the short-term downward trend is difficult to reverse immediately. The spot self-pickup price in East China is estimated to range between CNY 5,850-5,950/ton for the next trading day.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)