Volatile US-Iran tensions continue to impact prices through trading on Strait of Hormuz transit news.
High crude oil prices triggered collective refinery production cuts in October, with pure benzene output expected to fall below forecasts.
Brent crude surged above $100/barrel; pure benzene hit its year-to-date high amid rising feedstock costs and tight supply expectations.
| Figure 1: Weekly Price Trend Comparison of East China vs. Shandong Pure Benzene (2025–2026) (CNY/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
In September 2026, spot prices for pure benzene in East China rose sharply before pulling back, with geopolitical conflicts dominating pricing logic. Transaction references ranged from 8,540 to 10,550 CNY/ton, with a monthly average price of approximately 9,533 CNY/ton. Early in the month, escalating US-Iran conflict led to a sharp drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices above $100/barrel. Spot prices for pure benzene surged rapidly, with futures hitting the daily limit up multiple times. By late month, signs of peace negotiations emerged, causing geopolitical premiums to retreat and prices to pull back from highs. On the supply side, units undergoing maintenance gradually restarted, but operating rates increased less than expected due to feedstock shortages. Import arrivals were also limited. Inventory at Jiangsu ports fluctuated at historically low levels, keeping spot markets tight throughout the month with strong basis strength. On the demand side, losses across many downstream products suppressed buying activity, with cautious chasing of higher prices. The market exhibited significant divergence between strong spot and weak far-month contracts, essentially reflecting a tug-of-war between immediate tightness and future easing. There are disagreements regarding the sustainability of the geopolitical premium.
Table 1: Domestic Pure Benzene Market Price Change Table
Unit: CNY/ton
| Region | Sep Avg. Price | Aug Avg. Price | YoY Same Period | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 9533 | 7910 | 5897 | 20.52% | 61.66% |
| South China | 9468 | 7864 | 5911 | 20.40% | 60.18% |
| Shandong | 9314 | 7763 | 5947 | 19.98% | 56.62% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
| Figure 2: Capacity Utilization Trends of Pure Benzene Downstream Products (2025–2026) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Capacity utilization rates for all downstream products rebounded this period, reflecting the return of downstream demand during the September peak season. Looking ahead, styrene, phenol, and adipic acid are forecast to see increased capacity utilization, while caprolactam and aniline are expected to decline. Based on calculations of downstream consumption share of pure benzene, the composite capacity utilization rate for downstream products is projected to rise in October.
Table 2: Capacity Utilization Changes for Pure Benzene and Downstream Products
| Category | Product | Sep | Aug | Change | Oct Forecast | Oct Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Product | Pure Benzene | 70.84% | 64.98% | 5.86% | 73.25% | 2.41% |
| Downstream Products | Styrene | 64.29% | 61.86% | 2.43% | 65.67% | 1.38% |
| Caprolactam | 69.41% | 68.30% | 1.11% | 68.64% | -0.77% | |
| Phenol | 79.64% | 70.90% | 8.74% | 86.61% | 6.97% | |
| Aniline | 84.15% | 76.00% | 8.15% | 80.70% | -3.45% | |
| Adipic Acid | 67.01% | 64.55% | 2.46% | 72.87% | 5.86% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International oil prices may trade in a high range in October, driven by the tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premiums and weakening seasonal fundamentals. Brent crude is likely to operate within a range of $98–109/barrel. In the pure benzene market, previously maintained units will restart centrally, continuing to boost domestic production. However, imports are expected to decrease as arbitrage opportunities open for sales from Asia to the US. Overall supply is still projected to increase. On the demand side, operating rates of major downstream products are expected to recover, absorbing the supply expansion and maintaining tight spot conditions. Overall, domestic petroleum-derived benzene spot supply will remain tight without effective short-term relief, with port inventories staying at low levels. Pure benzene spot prices in October are expected to start low and trend higher, with a reference price range of 9,400–10,000 CNY/ton.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Pure Benzene Monthly Report.
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