① Domestic hydrogenated benzene production in September reached 331,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.40%.
② Profit margins for hydrogenated benzene enterprises in Shandong in September were -69.75 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decline of 306.67%.
③ Domestic demand for hydrogenated benzene in September was 2.533 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.26%.
Hydrogenated Benzene and Related Products: Monthly Price Summary
(Unit: Yuan/ton)
| Product | Region / Category | Current Avg. Price | Previous Avg. Price | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 101.59 | 87.78 | +13.81 | +15.73% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Benzene | Shandong | 7,803.42 | 6,358.95 | +1,444.47 | +22.72% | Yuan/ton |
| Pure Benzene | Shandong | 9,313.58 | 7,733.47 | +1,580.11 | +20.43% | Yuan/ton |
| Hydrogenated Benzene | Shandong | 9,228.95 | 7,696.32 | +1,532.63 | +19.91% | Yuan/ton |
| Styrene | East China | 10,219.74 | 8,813.68 | +1,406.06 | +15.95% | Yuan/ton |
| Phenol | East China | 8,835.00 | 8,355.26 | +479.74 | +5.74% | Yuan/ton |
| Caprolactam | East China | 14,014.47 | 12,378.95 | +1,635.52 | +13.21% | Yuan/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The hydrogenated benzene market in Shandong rose overall in September, with prices trading within the range of 8,350–9,900 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the month, military conflict between the U.S. and Iran triggered concerns over crude oil supply disruptions, leading to a sharp rise in international oil prices. With chemical product inventories generally low, domestic pure benzene futures and spot prices continued to climb. Supported by these positive factors, hydrogenated benzene producers actively raised prices. By mid-month, geopolitical tensions intensified further, heightening concerns in the crude oil market. Brent crude futures broke through $100/barrel for the first time since July 24, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in East China declined and remained at low levels, further boosting the market. Pure benzene hit its daily price limit on the exchange, while spot prices for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene jumped to approximately 9,600 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the year. Towards the end of the month, signs of easing appeared in the Middle East situation; however, significant differences remained in U.S.-Iran peace talks, keeping international oil prices slightly higher at elevated levels. Combined with month-end delivery requirements and short-covering replenishments, offer prices for pure benzene in East China surged to 10,300–10,800 yuan/ton. Major refineries posted their listed price at 9,900 yuan/ton, once again driving up hydrogenated benzene prices. By month-end, hydrogenated benzene prices in Shandong climbed to 9,900 yuan/ton, reaching the annual high level.
Overall, the price center for hydrogenated benzene in Shandong shifted significantly upward in September, with strong crude oil performance and low pure benzene inventories serving as core supports.
Hydrogenated benzene prices in China are expected to retreat from highs in October, but downside space is limited.
On the cost side, there is an expectation for international crude oil prices to fall: The likelihood of U.S.-Iran negotiations has increased, and under high oil prices, the U.S. pressure to lower prices has strengthened. Additionally, weak global crude oil demand and a stronger US dollar are putting pressure on oil prices. WTI is projected to trade in the range of $85–96/barrel, while Brent is expected to be in the range of $98–109/barrel.
Regarding fundamentals, pure benzene imports into China are expected to drop to 330,000 tons in October. While both supply and demand for domestic pure benzene are increasing, the increment in supply will not match the increment in demand. Port inventories in East China are expected to remain relatively low, providing support for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene prices.
In summary, international oil prices remain the core variable influencing pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene prices. Although oil prices are expected to retreat, marginal improvements in domestic pure benzene supply-demand balance and reduced imports in October suggest that downside potential for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene is limited. It is recommended to closely monitor crude oil trends and changes in East China port inventories.
Key Points to Watch Next Period:
① Monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and any resulting policy changes.
② Track changes in downstream units and their impact on the market.
③ Follow profit margins and operating rates in the coking industry and hydrogenated benzene sector.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Hydrogenated Benzene Monthly Report by Chempricehub Information.
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