In September 2026, caprolactam prices first rose and then fell, resulting in a significant increase in the average price.

1. Market Logic

① Sinopec's listed average price for pure benzene in September was 9,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,388 yuan/ton from August's 7,844 yuan/ton.
② The caprolactam market in September initially declined before rising. Supply tightened first and then loosened; with upstream costs remaining high, the average price of caprolactam rose significantly.
③ Caprolactam production in September was 515,600 tons, while downstream consumption was 514,600 tons. Downstream raw material procurement slowed down in the latter half of the month.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

This period saw an increase in the average price of caprolactam. In September, the spot average price for caprolactam in the East China market was approximately 13,992 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 12.32% and a year-on-year increase of 63.09%.

The caprolactam market in September rose initially before falling, with the average price increasing significantly compared to August. In the early-to-mid part of the month, crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical disturbances, and listed prices for pure benzene were raised multiple times consecutively. Strong cost-side drivers boosted caprolactam prices. Additionally, some new maintenance shutdowns on the supply side at the beginning of the month led to a tight supply structure, supporting caprolactam price increases. Prices in the East China market reached 14,400 yuan/ton (acceptance payment, delivered). In the latter half of the month, as previously maintained units gradually restarted, caprolactam supply recovered, leading to a looser supply structure. Meanwhile, downstream PA6 and end-use textile sectors showed weak acceptance of high prices, causing pressure on the caprolactam market and subsequent price declines. By the end of September, the spot price for caprolactam in the East China market was 13,800 yuan/ton (acceptance payment, delivered).

Domestic Regional Price Change Comparison Table (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

3. Market Influencing Factors Analysis

1. The caprolactam supply structure this period shifted from tight to loose. The supply-demand gap remained negative, but its absolute value narrowed.
2. On the supply side, caprolactam production in September was 515,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.49%.
3. On the demand side, domestic downstream consumption of caprolactam in September was 514,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13,000 tons, representing a decline of 2.46%.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

October Forecast: The caprolactam market is expected to fluctuate at high levels in October. Regarding costs, spot supply of pure benzene will remain tight and difficult to alleviate effectively in the short term, with port inventories maintaining low levels. Pure benzene spot prices are projected to range between 9,400-10,000 yuan/ton in October. Regarding supply, caprolactam volume is expected to continue recovering in October, leading to a loose supply structure that will constrain prices. Regarding demand, resistance to passing high raw material costs downstream remains significant, and the demand side is expected to maintain a cautious sentiment. Overall, considering the interplay between costs and supply-demand dynamics, caprolactam prices in October are predicted to range between 13,300-14,000 yuan/ton (acceptance payment, delivered).