Lead: Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) can hardly change the already oversupplied market situation. Despite earlier regional supply shortages, the market was fundamentally marked by excess capacity. Producers quickly adjusted operating rates to fill the gap, which pushed prices up sharply in the short term, but this is unlikely to reverse the bearish reality of supply-demand mismatch.
Mixed raw material movements deepen market participants' wait-and-see stance.
The sulfuric acid market is showing a regionally differentiated trend. Currently, demand is in the off-season, with limited operating rates in downstream end-use sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and chemicals. Overall demand remains sluggish, and buyers are largely purchasing on a need-only basis, with a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see and price pressure. During the week, acid prices continued to adjust downward in many regions, with sequential declines in Shandong, Hunan, Henan, Anhui, Zhejiang and other areas, mostly in the range of 70–190 yuan/ton. Some acid producers faced growing shipment pressure, inventories gradually accumulated, and negotiation room for new orders kept widening. In contrast, in the Fujian market, supported by previously low prices and low inventory levels at acid plants, major coastal producers slightly raised prices by 30 yuan/ton. Although sulfur and pyrite feedstock prices remain at relatively high levels, providing some bottom support for acid prices, the sluggish downstream demand persists. Support from the cost side is limited and cannot reverse the current weak market pattern.
The fluorspar market is divided in sentiment. The northern market had already completed phased restocking earlier, while the southern market still sees relatively wide negotiation space amid ongoing bargaining. Earlier high prices were mostly driven by factors such as inventory and quality, but some downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices. Meanwhile, the terminal market continues to transmit bearish signals, and their own consumption remains low. The notable regional price gap has allowed some low-priced external supply to flow in. Recently, Mongolian supply has continued to arrive, while some mines in Fujian have resumed operations. Although this has had limited effect on filling the supply gap in the southern market, it has stabilized the mindset of market participants. Upstream and downstream players are now in a strong wait-and-see mood, cautiously monitoring the operating rates of downstream producers.
Producers operate cautiously, and downstream acceptance remains limited.
The anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is suffused with a wait-and-see attitude, with cautious operations. Overall trading sentiment was subdued this week. A major northern plant has not yet started up, deepening the wait-and-see sentiment among upstream and downstream players. On the raw material side, the recent fluorspar price increase has been realized, with gains mostly concentrated in the range of 150–300 yuan/ton. Although the sulfuric acid market has declined somewhat under demand pressure, it remains at a high level, and cost-side pressure continues to climb. Producers have low enthusiasm for increasing operating rates, mostly producing according to orders and focusing on maintaining core customers. Producing beyond demand would only widen the price-inversion losses. On the demand side, bearish signals continue to be transmitted. Production schedules in end-use industries keep shrinking, while positive feedback from the export market appears superficial. High-end industries continue to release positive signals, and demand growth offers long-term support, but overall support for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remains limited.
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