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Home > News > Limited Volatility; Awaiting Fermentation (Sep 25–30, 2026)

Limited Volatility; Awaiting Fermentation (Sep 25–30, 2026)

Published on 2026-09-30
  1. Key Market Focus This Week
  1. Fluorite market sentiment has cooled, with wait-and-see attitudes deepening.
  2. The reference delivered price for the mainstream October contract of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) is 14,500–15,000 yuan/ton.
  3. AHF demand follow-up remains insufficient; capacity utilization has contracted, intensifying supply-demand tug-of-war.
  1. Weekly Market Analysis

This week, the domestic market for 97% fluorite concentrate showed limited fluctuation as participants awaited further developments. With the bidding and pricing cycle for hydrogen fluoride currently underway, pricing centers have generally declined, with reductions concentrated in the range of 200–600 yuan/ton. Regional differentiation has been notable, yet this continues to exert pressure on the fluorite market.

The fluorite market itself exhibits divergent trends. In northern markets, although supply is ample, demand is supported by winter stockpiling activities. Meanwhile, Mongolia has faced prolonged fuel shortages, leading to increased transportation costs. In southern markets, a strong wait-and-see attitude prevails. Despite significant declines in downstream pricing, sulfuric acid prices have shown signs of rebound after the holiday. However, holders maintain firm mindsets, while downstream participation remains low as they await post-holiday market momentum.

Current reference spot delivered prices across domestic regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia: 3,350–3,500 yuan/ton; Zhejiang: 3,500–3,600 yuan/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian: 3,700–3,850 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,550–3,650 yuan/ton; Northwest China: 3,400–3,500 yuan/ton; Henan and Anhui: 3,450–3,550 yuan/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic fluorite wet powder is referenced at 3,300–3,850 yuan/ton.

  1. Analysis of Downstream Market Influencing Factors

Weekly Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride (AHF) Market Trends:

This week, cost pressures in the domestic AHF market continued to ease, leading to a decline in the pricing range. Coinciding with the bidding and pricing cycle, bearish sentiment prevailed within the market. Pricing centers in East China (Jiangsu, Zhejiang) and South China were concentrated at 14,500–14,800 yuan/ton, while Shandong market pricing centers focused around 14,760–15,000 yuan/ton. The primary driver for these declines was the sustained drop in sulfuric acid prices, which gradually widened profit margins. Additionally, expectations of shrinking future demand persist, with negative factors from the refrigerant market continuing to transmit downward pressure. Subsequent related demand is expected to contract significantly, prompting major downstream producers to adjust operating loads and reduce consumption.

Conversely, high-end supply sources remain tight, with no obvious change in their pricing. Inquiry activity within the market is robust, creating a superficial appearance of tightening supply as participants await further informational guidance. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic AHF in the East China market is referenced at 14,500–14,800 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market at 14,760–15,000 yuan/ton.

  1. Next Week’s Market Forecast

In summary, the current fluorite market is characterized by a wait-and-see approach, with industry players awaiting pricing guidance from hydrogen fluoride. While overall downstream sentiment leans bearish, fluorite prices have remained relatively stable. Short-term domestic supply recovery is limited, while downstream still retains stockpiling demand. Consequently, fluctuations are expected to be limited in the near term. Chempricehub forecasts that the domestic fluorite market will experience range-bound oscillation next week.

Comments

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  • Olivier Dupont 2026-10-01 20:08
    Fluorite volatility is limited, but AHF prices fell to 14.5–15k yuan/ton amid weak downstream demand and lower sulfuric acid costs. With capacity utilization contracting, I expect range-bound oscillations until fermenta..
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