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By-product supply is the swing factor nobody prices. If copper smelters ramp, they release pyrite and acid regardless of the pyrite price, capping rallies. So the pure-play premium only holds while copper output is flat. Buyers should track smelter utilization alongside sulfur import volumes, not just mine-level news.
The margin story is real, but watch the policy layer. After February 2026, pyrite prices were pulled into spring-ploughing supply-and-price supervision, so the headline pyrite quote stopped tracking sulfur one-for-one. The winners are not those selling raw ore at spot; they are those converting captive ore into acid and phosphate. If sulfur normalizes, the acid price falls fast while mining costs stay flat, and that spread compresses quickly.
Practical read: the battery story matters for sentiment and for anyone building battery-grade sulfur capacity, not for bulk pyrite pricing. The near-term demand pull is phosphate fertilizer and wet-process copper, both rigid. If you are procuring pyrite, hedge against acid and fertilizer cycles, and treat electrolyte demand as a 2027-plus variable.