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The regulatory angle matters more than headline capacity. Western producers are not capacity-constrained so much as permit-constrained — nobody wants a new hydrogen cyanide line next door. That effectively locks in China's export role, but it also means any domestic environmental tightening hits global supply fast, since there is no easy substitute source.
Worth separating signal from noise here. A 4% to 50% margin move is almost always a supply shock, not pricing power. Downstream users should watch cyanide feedstock availability and any producer maintenance shutdowns — those, not herbicide demand, tend to set the near-term price floor and ceiling.
Don't overlook the additive side. Triazine-ring plastic additives are a smaller volume but higher-value outlet, and they are less exposed to the weather and crop-cycle swings that hit herbicide demand. Producers with additive-qualified grades tend to hold firmer pricing through the agricultural off-season.