What is driving the sharp MMA price rally in China through 2024?
China's MMA market climbed about 2,363 yuan/t in the first quarter of 2024, reaching the highest level in three years by May, with a cumulative gain of roughly 4,100 yuan/t from the March 2023 trough near 10,224 yuan/t. The rally stems from tight supply: many producers ran below 50% utilization since late 2023 due to high crude costs and weak margins, some idled permanently. Imports of downstream PMMA fell 1.25% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with February down 37%, while exports rose 7.2%. Seasonal maintenance from March further cut availability, with units at Jiangsu Sailboat, Mitsubishi Chemical and Roehm offline. Low inventories and speculative buying amplified the move. Downstream PMMA rose less, only about 1,800 yuan/t, squeezing converters who face slower demand growth and import competition.
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