China's domestic MMA production capacity entered a period of rapid expansion from 2021 to 2026. Capacity increased by 1.4 million tons, rising from 1.555 million tons to 2.955 million tons, representing a growth rate of 90.03%. This capacity growth was concentrated in regions including Northeast China, Shandong, East China, Southwest China, and South China, leading to significant shifts in both the industry structure and regional supply patterns.
I. MMA Capacity Grew by 1.4 Million Tons from 2021–2026, with a CAGR of 14%
From 2021 to 2026, the domestic MMA industry expanded rapidly, with capacity nearly doubling. As of October 12, 2026, capacity had reached 2.955 million tons, a substantial increase from 1.555 million tons in 2021. Undoubtedly, this expansion in industry scale has profoundly impacted product supply-demand dynamics and import-export patterns. The capacity growth during this period stemmed from both existing enterprises expanding operations and new entrants starting up. Notably, expansions were primarily driven by integrated refining and chemical complexes, thereby altering the competitive landscape among producers. On a regional level, the supply structure also underwent considerable changes.
II. Regional Diversification of MMA Capacity Distribution
Between 2021 and 2026, East China maintained its position as the leading region for MMA capacity. Its capacity grew from 540,000 tons to 1.05 million tons, an increase of 94.44%. Shandong ranked second, with capacity rising from 425,000 tons to 735,000 tons, a growth of 72.94%. In Northeast China, capacity increased from 275,000 tons to 475,000 tons (up 72.73%). Southwest China saw capacity grow from 225,000 tons to 375,000 tons, while South China’s capacity rose from 90,000 tons to 210,000 tons, representing increases of 66.67% and 133.33%, respectively. By October 2026, the combined capacity of East China and Shandong reached 1.785 million tons, accounting for 60.41% of the national total. South China recorded the highest growth rate, followed by East China, while Shandong and Northeast China exhibited comparable levels of expansion.
III. Shift in Import-Export Landscape: From Net Importer to Net Exporter
Comparing methyl methacrylate (MMA) import and export volumes between 2021 and 2026 reveals a clear trend: imports declined while exports increased. The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for imports and exports are estimated at -20% and +16%, respectively. This transformation in the domestic trade balance is primarily attributed to the surge in local production capacity, which improved self-sufficiency, reduced dependence on imports, and opened opportunities for exports.
Conclusion
In summary, the recent increase in MMA capacity and overall industry scale suggests that the domestic self-sufficiency rate will reach approximately 122% by 2026. Changes in the domestic supply structure have not only influenced regional and national supply-demand dynamics but also created more arbitrage opportunities for exports, fundamentally altering the import-export landscape. Since MMA price fluctuations are closely tied to supply and demand conditions, these evolving domestic market and international trade patterns will continue to exert significant influence on pricing.
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