Weekly Market Outlook for the C5 Value Chain

I. Key Focus Points

1. The market is monitoring the risk of renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, while mediators continue to push for peace talks. International crude oil prices rose slightly. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) settled at $90.83/barrel, up $0.31/barrel (+0.34% WoW); ICE Brent futures (January contract) settled at $98.32/barrel, up $0.03/barrel (+0.03% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (contract SC2701) rose by 1.2 yuan to 631.8 yuan/barrel, with night session trading rising by 2.1 yuan to 633.9 yuan/barrel.
2. As of the 5th, Japanese naphtha closed at $896.25/ton, down $9.51/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $96.42/barrel, down $9.51/barrel from the previous trading day.
3. Last week, domestic prices for cracked C5 from major producers remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices fell to approximately 7,200 yuan/ton, significantly below cracked C5 prices. Residual liquid saw no transactions across multiple days nationwide, leading to increased inventory levels for various enterprises. Residual liquid prices are gradually showing signs of breaking below the 7,000 yuan threshold, posing a potential threat to cracked C5 prices. In terms of downstream processing, piperylene monomer prices remain acceptable; however, road marking paint, a key downstream product for resins, has entered its off-season, resulting in weak demand. Adhesives maintain rigid demand, but buyers are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach due to potential risks associated with falling crude oil prices.
4. Last week, mainstream prices for cracked C5 residual liquid remained stable, with minor price increases in scattered markets. After gasoline market prices dropped over the weekend, transaction sentiment was mediocre. Prices for substitutable products like mixed C5 declined, and market transactions were sluggish. Although market sentiment was poor, supported by high-level cracked C5 prices, residual liquid plants maintained firm pricing for shipments. However, bearish factors at the terminal end limited overall buying and selling activity.
5. Last week, piperylene traded within a stable range, with slight local increases. Low supply provided support for prices, but weak downstream demand, combined with consecutive declines in crude oil prices last week, left the market lacking momentum for further price hikes. Consequently, prices stabilized within their range, with low-end resources seeing minor upticks. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,900 yuan/ton.
6. Last week, isoprene continued to rise. Despite continuous drops in crude oil prices during the week, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance (shortage of supply) dominated the market, supporting the upward trend in product prices. Mainstream bid prices in East China ranged from 14,900 to 15,500 yuan/ton.
7. Last week, the lower bound of domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) prices shifted upward. Self-pickup prices ranged from 10,300 to 10,600 yuan/ton, with low-end supplies primarily serving long-term clients. Auction prices held steady at 10,600 yuan/ton. Spot supply remains tight, with the market sustaining only rigid demand levels.
8. Last week, mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in road marking paint ranged from 9,850 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Early-week rises in cracked C5 prices intensified cost pressures on resin manufacturers. Terminal users maintained rigid procurement, while demand weakened locally in northern regions. Market transactions were stagnant, with negotiated prices seeing sporadic increases before stabilizing.
9. Last week, mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in piperylene adhesives ranged from 12,000 to 13,600 yuan/ton, while prices for de-cyclized adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 10,800 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Volatility in international crude oil prices heightened caution among terminal buyers. Short-term market dynamics were driven by cost pressures on resin manufacturers and supply shortages, providing support for prices, which consolidated at high levels.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 rose, isoprene rose, piperylene rose slightly, DCPD rose, and C5 petroleum resin prices saw sporadic increases.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

III. Market Outlook

Crude oil closed higher, but industry sentiment remains pessimistic. Shandong mixed C5 prices are expected to decline further, creating bearish pressure on residual liquid. Regarding piperylene monomers, low inventory provides some price support. For resins, road marking paint is currently in its off-season with weak demand, while adhesives maintain rigid procurement. Previous declines in crude oil have impacted current industry sentiment, leading to more cautious purchasing operations.

The domestic cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to face downward pressure. Domestic demand shows no improvement, and there is room for gasoline market prices to fall. Mixed C5 refineries face shipping pressures due to their homogeneous nature. Although raw material trends remain firm, the terminal market leans bearish. Chempricehub Information predicts that recent cracked C5 residual liquid market conditions have room for decline.

Intraday crude oil trading showed a predominant downward trend, suppressing market participants' willingness to enter. Gasoline market prices dropped over the weekend, resulting in poor trading sentiment. Given the bearish atmosphere at the terminal end, Chempricehub Information predicts that mixed C5 prices will continue to decline today.

Isoprene prices are expected to stabilize temporarily. Overall tight supply continues to provide support, but crude oil volatility has made traders cautious. Prices are expected to hold steady as the market adopts a wait-and-see approach.

Piperylene prices are expected to stabilize temporarily. Factories currently face no significant inventory pressure, providing support. However, crude oil volatility and lackluster downstream performance suggest prices will likely hold steady as the market waits and sees.

DCPD prices are expected to maintain a consolidating trend. Short-term spot supply lacks incremental volume, while downstream rigid demand persists despite high costs. Amidst this supply-demand tug-of-war, prices are expected to consolidate.

For C5 petroleum resin used in road marking paint, manufacturer spot availability is scarce in the short term. However, declining rigid downstream demand and fluctuating international crude oil prices mean negotiated prices will largely remain stable. For C5 petroleum resin used in adhesives, peak season downstream demand is falling short of expectations, and manufacturer supply volumes are low, suggesting negotiated prices will continue to run stably.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: List of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)