1. Weekly Market Highlights

1. Industrial pyrolysis C9 production this week was 63,100 tons, with an operating rate of 79.38%.
2. Pyrolysis C9 prices continued to rise universally this week, increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The price range moved between 6,150 and 6,300 yuan/ton.
3. This week, the profit margin for industrial aromatic solvents was -91 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin was -228 yuan/ton.

2. Analysis of Industrial Pyrolysis C9 Market Trends This Week

Mainstream national quotes for pyrolysis C9 continued to rise during this period. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased within the cycle, causing Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate downward, with a period average of $107.10/barrel, weakening cost support. Prices for downstream industrial aromatic solvents were strong initially but weakened later, rising before falling in line with crude oil and gasoline prices; vessel orders slowed, reducing demand support. Quotes for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin rose slightly, but downstream resistance to high prices increased and wait-and-see sentiment grew, limiting the extent of the increase and putting pressure on shipments. Within the cycle, pyrolysis C9 production and capacity utilization rates rose slightly, leading to a small increase in market supply. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm slowed, bargaining and wait-and-see sentiments were strong, and independent refineries primarily negotiated prices. Currently, gross margins for the two major downstream products of pyrolysis C9 are weakening simultaneously; gross margins for both industrial aromatic solvents and C9 petroleum resins declined significantly this period. For the next period, production and consumption volumes are expected to continue rising slightly, while gross margins for industrial aromatic solvents are expected to maintain a downward trend. Overall, insufficient cost support due to declining crude oil prices suggests a potential downward trend for pyrolysis C9 next week.

Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Industrial Pyrolysis C9 Market

Unit: yuan/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

3. Analysis of Downstream Markets for Industrial Pyrolysis C9

1. C9 Thermally Polymerized Petroleum Resin: During this period, market quotes for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin remained stable with some increases, while actual transactions were primarily based on negotiation. Rising raw material pyrolysis C9 prices provided cost support; however, downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, showing resistance to high-priced resources. Additionally, recent declines in crude oil prices heightened market wait-and-see sentiment, limiting resin price increases and keeping shipment pressure intact. Regarding market supply this period, slight fluctuations in operating loads at some enterprises led to a month-on-month decrease in capacity utilization. Although rising raw material costs provided some support, end-market acceptance of high-priced resources remained low, resulting in a stalemate in trading atmosphere and a slight month-on-month increase in the average market price. Bearish sentiment persists in the market this week. Currently, the market price for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin grades 10-11# is 6,900-7,500 yuan/ton, and for grades 16-18#, it is 4,500-5,800 yuan/ton.

2. Industrial Aromatic Solvents: Specifically, domestic spot prices for industrial aromatic solvents were strong initially but weakened later this period, fluctuating within a range of 7,150-8,400 yuan/ton. The price trajectory followed a "strong start, weak finish" pattern. This week, influenced by easing geopolitical conflicts, crude oil futures fell continuously, dropping approximately $20/barrel over three trading days, providing weak support to the market. Gasoline market prices rebounded within the week; after initial price pushes, industrial aromatic solvent prices followed gasoline and crude oil downwards, though the overall decline was limited, resulting in a net increase in the average price.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

The center of gravity for pyrolysis C9 prices is expected to shift lower next period, with a predominantly weak trend. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply: No units completing maintenance shutdowns are expected to restart next period. Most enterprise units will continue to experience load fluctuations, leading to a slight overall increase in supply.
2. Demand: There are no new planned maintenance shutdowns for C9 petroleum resin units; however, some units are operating at reduced loads, causing a slight decrease in the overall operating rate. Downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials remains, with entry into the market limited to rigid demand, offering little psychological support to the market. Furthermore, international crude oil futures are expected to decline next week, weakening psychological support. Retail gasoline prices have fallen, recent vessel order transactions have slowed, and gasoline prices are expected to drop by 150-200 yuan/ton. Industrial aromatic solvents are expected to follow this downward trend, leading to a slight overall decline in demand.
3. Costs: Negative impacts on crude oil demand will cause a slight decrease in pyrolysis C9 costs. Combined with persistent bearish market news disturbing sentiment, market psychology will be under pressure.

In summary, pyrolysis C9 prices are expected to decline next week by 100-200 yuan/ton, referencing a range of 5,950-6,100 yuan/ton.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Weekly Report on Industrial Pyrolysis C9.