Weakening Demand Leads to a Slight Decline in the Domestic Butadiene Market

1. Today’s Summary

① On October 13, Sinopec lowered its ex-factory butadiene price in East China by 500 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton. Downstream synthetic rubber prices continued to decline.

② On October 13, the domestic butadiene industry’s capacity utilization rate stood at 66.61%, remaining stable compared to the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/ton)

Based on the delivery price in central Shandong, today’s closing price was 13,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous period. The domestic butadiene market weakened today. Although some regional plants were undergoing maintenance, leading to lower domestic production and reducing sellers’ willingness to offer low prices, the continuous decline in downstream key product—synthetic rubber—prices fostered a cautious wait-and-see sentiment. This pressured some sellers to make minor concessions to facilitate sales, resulting in a slightly weaker market trend. The delivery price in central Shandong ranged between 13,500–13,600 yuan/ton, while the tank truck pickup reference price in East China was around 13,250–13,300 yuan/ton.

On October 13, the domestic butadiene industry’s capacity utilization rate was 66.61%, stable compared to the previous working day. Regarding theoretical production margins, on October 12, the Japanese naphtha market saw a significant increase, while Sinopec maintained its butadiene price at 14,000 yuan/ton. Consequently, the theoretical production margin for butadiene extracted via C4 extraction declined, with the calculated profit for this process standing at 3,964.70 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, domestic butadiene supply remains relatively unchanged, limiting its impact on market trends. Some downstream enterprises have shut down their units for maintenance, resulting in moderate procurement demand for butadiene. With buyers adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, market prices may face some pressure. Some sellers might offer minor discounts to clear inventory. However, considering cost support, the domestic butadiene market is expected to consolidate weakly.

5. Related Product Markets

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, both BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene-butadiene rubber) prices declined. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 prices dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, while Qilu SBR 1502 prices fell by 400 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table: Domestic Butadiene Data Overview (Units: 10,000 tons, Yuan/ton)