Overview

Geopolitical tensions eased, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and weaker cost support. Coupled with insufficient end-user demand, PX prices fell. Lack of demand support created negative feedback for PX. Naphtha supply remained tight, causing the PX-naphtha spread to narrow during the week. Gasoline entered its traditional consumption off-season, providing insufficient support for MX; consequently, the PX-MX processing margin widened during the week.

Key Points:

1. This week’s PX production was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 1.84% week-over-week (WoW).
2. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 84.44%, a decrease of 1.58% WoW.

I. Sluggish End-User Demand Drives Down PX Prices

During this period (October 29, 2026 – November 4, 2026), geopolitical tensions eased and crude oil prices declined, resulting in weak cost support. Combined with insufficient end-user demand, PX prices decreased. The lack of demand support exerted negative pressure on PX. While naphtha supply remained tight, the PX-naphtha spread narrowed during the week. As gasoline entered its traditional low-consumption season, support for MX weakened, causing the PX-MX processing margin to rise. As of Wednesday, November 4, the average Asian PX market price was USD 1,315.47/ton CFR China and USD 1,293.47/ton FOB Korea, representing a WoW decrease of USD 9.8/ton, or -0.74% and -0.75% respectively. The Sinopec PX settlement price for October was RMB 10,155/ton (with a deduction of RMB 15/ton for cash payments).

This week, Fujian Baihong underwent planned maintenance shutdowns, and Fuhai Chuang experienced short-term stoppages. However, due to the restart of Jiattong Energy and Dushan Energy last week, supply-side volumes continued to increase. On the demand side, volumes rose as previously maintained units restarted, maintaining an overall inventory accumulation trend. However, following the US midterm elections where Democrats won both the Senate and House, markets adopted an optimistic view regarding easing geopolitical situations. International crude oil prices retreated rapidly from highs, dampening sentiment across commodities. Cost-side pressures caused the weight center of East China spot prices to drop rapidly this week.

At closing, the weekly average spot price for PTA in the East China region was RMB 6,899/ton, a WoW decrease of RMB 257.4/ton.

II. Reduced Operating Rates at Zhejiang Petrochemical Lead to Lower Weekly PX Production

This week, load adjustments were made at specific units. Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 600,000-ton unit, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 340,000-ton unit, and Fujia’s 700,000-ton unit continued their maintenance shutdowns, while loads at other units remained unchanged. Weekly PX production totaled 700,000 tons, down 1.84% WoW. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate stood at 84.44%, down 1.58% WoW.

During this period, domestic PTA production reached 1.3641 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons compared to the previous week, but a decrease of 131,500 tons year-over-year. Although Fujian Bai宏 shut down for maintenance and Fuhai Chuang experienced short-term stoppages this cycle, the sequential restarts of Jiattong Energy and Dushan Energy from the previous week led to a continued overall increase in domestic production.

III. Supply Reduction Leads to Destocking

Next Week’s PX Production Forecast: Next week, Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 600,000-ton unit, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 340,000-ton unit, and Fujia’s 700,000-ton unit will remain offline. PX weekly production is projected at 694,800 tons, with an average weekly capacity utilization rate of 83.8%.

Table 1: China PX Supply-Demand Balance Sheet

Unit: 10,000 tons

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Next Week’s PTA Production Forecast: No new maintenance plans are scheduled for next week. Due to concurrent restarts and shutdowns of units this week, domestic supply will contract slightly. Next week’s weekly production is estimated to be around 1.3583 million tons.

IV. Interplay of Costs and Supply Drives Price Volatility

This week’s survey included 20 sample enterprises: 15 PX producers, 3 downstream users, and 2 traders.

• Bullish Sentiment (~5%): Spot availability is tight, leading to high floating spot premiums.
• Stable Sentiment (~20%): Main view is that the market lacks clear directional guidance.
• Bearish Sentiment (~75%): PX operating rates have risen significantly, downstream demand remains weak, and cost support is poor.

The PX market is expected to fluctuate weakly next week. With insufficient cost support and sluggish end-user demand, PX prices are predicted to trade around USD 1,250/ton CFR China. On the cost side, international crude oil prices may decline further next week, with WTI potentially ranging between USD 81–91/barrel and Brent between USD 87–97/barrel.