On March 9, toluene prices in the Shandong region reached 11,000–11,010 yuan/tonne, a month-on-month increase of 75.88%. In Jiangsu, prices ranged from 8,100–8,900 yuan/tonne, up 31.99% month-on-month, while Guangdong saw prices of 8,100–8,500 yuan/tonne, an increase of 31.96%.
On March 6, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing nations, intensifying market concerns over supply interruptions. Consequently, international crude oil prices closed with gains exceeding 10%. Affected by this trend, major domestic refineries aggressively pushed prices higher on March 7 and 8. However, as these dates coincided with the weekend, market participants had not fully resumed trading. Upon returning to the market on March 9, panic sentiment spread rapidly. Independent refineries in Shandong were the first to raise listed prices to 10,000 yuan/tonne, causing buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while other regions followed suit with price increases.
Due to the sharp price jump driven by panic sentiment, demand remained cautious and speculative, with no significant follow-through buying. As a result, domestic toluene prices corrected rationally on March 10, with the average price dropping by 21.05%.
In early March, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East obstructed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering tight raw material supplies for Asian refining and cracking units. Coastal refineries in southern China faced notable impacts, with some enterprises forced to maintain minimum production loads for extended periods. As the duration of the navigation disruption exceeded market expectations, pressure on domestic refinery feedstock supplies intensified further. Many companies chose to advance their unit maintenance schedules or even shut down completely to mitigate the risk of feedstock shortages.
Table 35: Statistics on Unit Fluctuations at Select Domestic Toluene Producers in 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tonnes/year, days)
| Enterprise Name | Capacity | Shutdown Date | Restart Date | Duration (Days) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yangzi Petrochemical | 57 | 2026/5/6 | 2026/9/30 | 147 | Advanced maintenance |
| Hainan Refining & Chemical | 46.8 | 2026/6/1 | - | - | Advanced maintenance |
| Hainan Refining & Chemical | 10 | 2026/6/5 | - | - | Advanced maintenance |
| Hainan Refining & Chemical | 28 | 2026/7/1 | - | - | Advanced maintenance |
| Panjin Baolai | 15 | 2026/4/7 | 2026/8/31 | 145 | Feedstock shortage |
| Panjin Haoye | 17 | 2026/4/18 | 2026/8/10 | 116 | Feedstock shortage |
| Zhanjiang Dongxing | 5 | 2026/3/6 | - | - | Feedstock shortage |
| Zhongjie Petrochemical | 5.4 | 2026/3/19 | - | - | Feedstock shortage |
| Tianjin New Materials | 11 | 2026/3/25 | - | - | Feedstock shortage |
| Zhongjin Petrochemical | 61.5 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/8/15 | 69 | Feedstock shortage |
| Maoming Petrochemical | 12.6 | 2026/7/13 | - | - | Feedstock shortage |
The slow recovery of traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz has led to persistent insufficiency in external transport of raw materials. Consequently, certain domestic refineries, such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Qingdao Lidong, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical, and Gulei Petrochemical, have been unable to secure adequate feedstock supplies even after their scheduled maintenance periods ended. These refineries have been forced to extend their shutdowns, delaying their restart schedules accordingly.
China’s cumulative toluene exports from January to July reached 1.0447 million tonnes, nearly matching the full-year total of 1.0669 million tonnes recorded in 2025. Notably, combined exports in June and July totaled 452,400 tonnes, accounting for 27% of the year-to-date export volume.
The primary driver was the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East starting in late February and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This caused widespread load reductions and force majeure declarations among Asian cracking and reforming units, pushing toluene operating rates to historic lows for the same period. The sudden scarcity of tradable supply in Asia drove up offshore prices.
Secondly, from May onwards, Europe and the US entered the traditional peak gasoline consumption season. As a high-octane gasoline blending component, toluene demand surged, keeping arbitrage windows between Asia-US and Asia-Europe consistently positive and maintaining high premium export profits.
Domestically, gasoline demand had not yet materialized, and margins in key downstream chemical industries were under pressure, leading to weak toluene consumption. This forced domestic prices lower, widening the price gap between domestic and international markets. Meanwhile, increased participation by intermediaries in export operations significantly boosted market activity.
In September, the weekly average arrival volume of toluene at major ports in Jiangsu was 4,500 tonnes, while weekly average off-take volumes stood at 5,600 tonnes. Delivery inventories briefly fell below 3,000 tonnes.
During June and July, domestic toluene export volumes surged. Weekly average arrivals were only 1,700 tonnes, while off-takes reached 6,800 tonnes. Off-take consumption was primarily driven by vessel orders, which flowed mainly to Central China and Dongguan. Purchases in Central China were largely rigid demands from downstream chemical enterprises with cyclical withdrawal patterns, whereas shipments to Dongguan were triggered by the opening of export windows. With continuous declines in arrivals and sustained high off-take levels, the Jiangsu region lacked supply replenishment. Low inventories directly pushed the daily average price in Jiangsu to its annual high of 9,200 yuan/tonne.
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