Trading sentiment remains subdued, with monomer prices showing a slight softening trend while remaining generally stable.

1. Today's Summary

① Raw Materials: East China ethylene oxide (EO) prices stood at 9,700 RMB/ton; domestic ethylene prices remained stable at 9,400 RMB/ton.

② Demand: Downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with low willingness to enter the market for procurement.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Price Summary of Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer (PCE) Monomers (Unit: RMB/ton)

Today, domestic PCE monomer prices showed signs of slight softening while remaining generally stable. The EO raw material market is supported by supply-side factors, keeping prices steady for now. Ethylene producers currently face no pressure from external sales shipments, with inventory primarily allocated to pre-sold orders. However, recent buying interest in derivatives has been weak, with market activity largely limited to inquiries and negotiations on dips, resulting in a lackluster overall trading atmosphere. Cost support from the EO sector provides a floor for prices. Trading within the monomer market remains quiet as downstream enterprises adopt a bearish outlook and risk-averse stance, focusing mainly on consuming existing raw material inventories. In summary, the price of EPEG in the key East China market is projected to remain at 11,800–12,000 RMB/ton for the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the PCE monomer industry was 24.21%, representing a period-over-period decline. The gross margin for PCE monomer HPEG stood at 1,171 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

For the next working day, domestic PCE monomer prices may experience narrow fluctuations or slight softening. Key raw material EO is expected to remain stable for now, with no immediate supply pressure in the market. Downstream industries across various sectors are maintaining purchases based on essential demand. Recently, weakening macroeconomic sentiment has negatively impacted market psychology. Buying momentum for ethylene remains weak, suggesting prices will likely continue their stable trend, with cost support potentially persisting. High-priced transactions for monomers are sporadic, while downstream buyers are cautious, adopting a wait-and-see approach, and transactions are negotiated based on volume. In conclusion, the price of EPEG in the key East China market is forecasted to range between 11,800 and 12,000 RMB/ton.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): EO prices are expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term. On the supply side, availability of related product monoethylene glycol (MEG) remains tight in the market. There have been no short-term changes to co-production units, limiting the increase in spot EO supply and sustaining the tight supply condition. On the demand side, orders from downstream industries have slowed ahead of holidays, with consumption maintained at essential levels. Regarding costs, recent buying sentiment in the ethylene market has been poor, with prices expected to remain largely stable. While slight softening cannot be ruled out in northern regions, cost support remains present. Overall, both supply and cost factors continue to provide support to the market in the short term, suggesting EO prices will remain stable for now. Future developments should monitor changes in upstream and downstream sectors.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: List of Domestic PCE Monomer Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)