Ethylene oxide prices remain stable at elevated levels.

1. Daily Summary

1. Nov 5: The outlook for US-Iran relations remains unclear, with the possibility of renewed conflict persisting. Supply risks have increased, driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI December futures closed at $90.52/bbl, up $2.40 (+2.72%); ICE Brent January futures closed at $98.29/bbl, up $3.67 (+3.88%). China INE ethylene oxide futures (contract 2612) fell by CNY 37.8 to CNY 638.4/ton during the day session, then rose by CNY 1.40 to CNY 639.8/ton in the night session.

2. Nov 5: Port-based ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price stood at $1,240/ton, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide prices maintained a stable trend today. On the supply side, minor adjustments were made to operating units, and no new cargo entered the market, keeping supply tight. On the demand side, major downstream users showed willingness to hold prices firm, with purchasing primarily driven by rigid contract orders. Regarding costs, available domestic resources are exceptionally scarce; the lack of spot sellable resources in Shandong, combined with reduced ethylene contract volumes in the Northeast, has intensified bullish market expectations. Overall, supported by tight supply and high costs, ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream dynamics.

Figure 1: 2026 Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Trend Chart (CNY/ton)
Figure 2: 2025-2026 Domestic Price Trends by Region Chart (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Chempricehub Info

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 53.46%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,272/ton. Today's theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced using domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 638.5/ton, showing a period-over-period change.

Figure 3: 2025-2026 Domestic Ethylene Oxide Capacity Utilization Rate Trend Chart
Figure 4: 2025-2026 Domestic Ethylene Oxide Profit & Price Comparison Chart (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Chempricehub Info

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to run stably. On the supply side, units undergoing maintenance or short-term shutdowns have not yet resumed operations, resulting in no new cargo and limited spot resources, leading to overall tight supply. On the demand side, downstream industries are taking delivery via contracts; inventory levels among major downstream users remain low, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Regarding raw materials, ethylene supply within the East China region is exceptionally tight. Mainstream downstream enterprises in the region are cautious buyers, while some rigid-demand users have shifted to sourcing higher-priced cargoes from East China. The overall trading atmosphere is positive, with increased transaction volumes for high-priced resources. In summary, strong cost-side support will keep ethylene oxide prices stable. Continuous monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is recommended.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Outlook for the ethylene market: Derivative product prices mostly declined today. However, domestic ethylene resources remain tight, and rigid demand purchasing intent is decent. Therefore, ethylene prices are likely to remain strong. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are maintained at CNY 10,100–10,300/ton, while mainstream prices in Shandong are at CNY 10,300–10,500/ton. In terms of USD pricing, the shipping market continues to receive support from the supply side, with the USD price range expected to be $1,200–$1,280/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers are expected to remain temporarily stable. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, may maintain stability. Some units on short-term shutdown may resume operations, keeping the market in a short-term supply-demand balance. Downstream industries are purchasing based on rigid demand. Domestic ethylene spot resources are exceptionally scarce, and inventory levels for some derivative raw materials are low, raising the possibility of chasing highs. Cost-side bottom support exists. Facing high raw material costs, monomer producers have a strong willingness to hold prices firm. End-users are cautious about raw material procurement, making it difficult to boost short-term purchasing enthusiasm. Transactions are negotiated based on volume. In conclusion, the main East China EPEG price is expected to be in the range of CNY 10,400–10,600/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical factors remain highly uncertain. Crude oil prices rebounded as a corrective move, strengthening the cost support for monoethylene glycol and weakening expectations of loose supply. The market is expected to show a short-term corrective rebound. For the next trading day, the self-pickup spot price in East China is estimated to be in the range of CNY 5,550–5,650.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data List (Unit: 10,000 tons)