**Crude Oil Plunges as Both Supply and Demand Decline; Diethylene Glycol Outlook Remains Uncertain**

Lead: International crude oil prices are falling sharply from high levels, prompting caution in the chemical market. Some commodities are following this trend, while diethylene glycol (DEG) is currently exhibiting a one-way downward movement. Both bullish and bearish participants are holding off on clear actions; most traders are waiting for shipping forecasts from the Middle East, with spot prices fluctuating within a fixed range.

Reduced Arrivals and Lower Domestic Output Ease Supply Pressure

In early November, the pace of vessel arrivals at major ports was loose, with significantly lower volumes compared to late October. Currently, there are no confirmed shipping updates from the Middle East. The largest volume at the beginning of the month was 5,000 tons from South Asia, with very few vessels arriving from other regions. On the domestic front, high crude oil prices squeezed profits for ethylene oxide-based monoethylene glycol (MEG) production, leading some refining and chemical units to reduce operating rates in late October. Consequently, the overall domestic operating load dropped to around 60%. Entering November, as crude oil prices corrected sharply from highs, profit margins for ethylene-based plants recovered. Units that had planned to cut production or switch product lines have now decided not to further reduce loads, maintaining operations after completing their adjustments.

Downstream Restocking Ends, Leading to Significant Drop in Shipments from Major Ports

Since the end of October, the shipment pace from Zhangjiagang has slowed markedly. Concentrated restocking by unsaturated resin and polyurethane producers has largely concluded. In November, new orders from end-users remained weak, reducing spot demand for DEG. Although Shuntian warehouse transferred some spot inventory shipments, weekly shipment data indicates that downstream buyers have ended their concentrated procurement. Daily average shipments from major ports dropped from over 1,000 tons to approximately 550 tons, while terminal inventories rose gradually from below 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons.

Over the past week, international crude oil prices fell by more than 14%, causing concern in the chemical market as some commodities followed suit. DEG trading has been primarily unidirectional, with the market focusing on the 7,000 level as a key psychological point. Supply and demand changes are aligned without new variables entering the market, keeping prices fluctuating within a fixed range. Lacking critical arrival data, neither bulls nor bears have shown a clear inclination.

Table 1: Weekly Price List of Diethylene Glycol and Related Products

Data Source: Chempricehub

Currently, the primary unstable factor visible in the market is the trajectory of international crude oil prices. Amid geopolitical turbulence, there is caution regarding volatile swings in oil prices. In the short term, there are no turning points in DEG fundamentals; supply-demand rhythms remain relatively moderate, making crude oil the biggest variable. From a participant sentiment perspective, both bulls and bears remain non-committal, with expectations leaning towards wait-and-see. Without new developments, DEG tends to trade within a fixed range, and a new direction requires further observation.