The domestic ethanol market price remains stable.

1. Today's Summary

① Ethanol prices in Jilin (Northeast China) remained stable;
② Prices in Heilongjiang (Northeast China) remained stable;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable;
⑥ Downstream chemical demand transactions increased;
⑦ Refinery prices in Shandong declined.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

[Today's Commentary] Based on the Heilongjiang market, today's 95% ethanol closed at 5,000–5,100 RMB/ton. Northeast ethanol prices remained stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders. On the fuel side, factory operations were stable; some sellers had a positive outlook and released inventory. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable, while downstream rigid demand was average. Ethanol prices in East China remained stable, but delivered prices to downstream chemical industries rose. Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable; Kaiyue did not release ethanol quotes, transaction volume was moderate, and shipments fulfilled contract orders. Delivered prices from Shandong refineries declined.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ethanol capacity utilization maintained a level of 50.55%. Regarding edible ethanol production: Hongzhan (Heilongjiang) is operating at low load; Zhongke Green is producing; Shenglong unit is shut down; Wanli Ethanol is producing; Dongfeng (Jilin) is producing; Fukang unit is producing; Yushu unit is producing; Xintianlong unit is producing; Baiyecheng (Inner Mongolia) unit is producing; Hanyong (Henan) unit is producing; Huaxing unit is producing; Houyuan unit ignited tonight for product output; Sichuan Hongzhan is producing; Qufeng (Shandong) is producing; Huating (East China) is producing; Longhe is shut down; Guannan Xinguan is shut down; Romite is shut down; Wanshen (Anhui) is producing; COFCO Fuel (Anhui) is producing; COFCO Zhaodong is producing; SDIC Jidong is producing; Helen Bio is producing; Tieling is producing. Today, the theoretical profit margin for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang was 196.00 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China remain stable with order fulfillment ongoing, though supply of premium-grade products is relatively tight. Prices in East China remain stable but slightly weak; as freight rates from the Northeast decline, delivered prices drop, impacting East China price trends. Prices in Henan remain stable due to downstream rigid procurement. Coal-based ethanol prices remain stable with contract order fulfillment, and there is no significant inventory pressure in the short term. Fuel ethanol prices remain stable but slightly weak, with some sellers showing a positive attitude toward releasing inventory.

5. Related Product Status

1. Dried Cassava: On October 14, FOB Bangkok quotes for Thai dried cassava were USD 245/ton; CNF quotes for Vietnamese dried cassava were USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: The harvest and listing period has begun in Northeast China. Overall market supply is ample, and prices have been fluctuating with a slight downward bias.
3. Ethyl Acetate: In East China, ethyl acetate market prices fell by 25 RMB/ton, trading at 6,950–7,170 RMB/ton (ex-factory cash). Weakening offers from surrounding areas affected market sentiment. Downstream inquiry enthusiasm was poor, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Most participants adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding future trends.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)