The domestic ethanol market price remains stable with an upward trend.

1. Today's Summary

① Ethanol prices in Jilin, Northeast China, remain stable;
② Prices in Heilongjiang, Northeast China, are steady;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices in East China have risen;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan Province saw a slight increase;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remain stable;
⑥ Downstream chemical orders are being shipped;
⑦ Refinery prices in Shandong are weak.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

[Today's Commentary] Based on the Heilongjiang region, 95% ethanol closed today at 4,900–5,100 CNY/ton. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with most plants holding no inventory and shipping previous orders. On the fuel side, plant operations were stable, and major suppliers were fulfilling order shipments. In Henan, the lower end of premium-grade ethanol prices rose slightly; downstream demand was moderate, and plants faced no significant inventory pressure. Ethanol prices in East China remained stable as downstream chemical orders were shipped. Coal-based ethanol prices in East China increased, while other regions stayed flat. Delivered prices for downstream products in Shandong weakened slightly.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the domestic ethanol capacity utilization rate held at 46.31%. Regarding edible ethanol production: Hongzhan in Heilongjiang resumed operations but at low load rates; Zhongke Green halted production; Shenglong, Wanli Ethanol, Fuchang, Yushu, Xintianlong, Baiyecheng (Inner Mongolia), Hanyong (Henan), Huaxing, Houyuan, Hongzhan (Sichuan), Qufeng (Shandong), Wanshanghua Ting (East China), Wanshen (Anhui), COFCO Fuel (Anhui), COFCO Zhaodong, Guotou Jidong, Hailun Bio, and Tieling maintained production. Dongfeng (Jilin), Longhe (East China), Guannan Xinguan (East China), and Romait (East China) halted operations. Today, the profit margin for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang stood at -180.34 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will stay steady as contract orders are shipped, with low plant inventories and rising freight costs keeping delivered prices high. Prices in East China will remain stable due to ongoing chemical order shipments. Prices in Henan are expected to be stable but weak, as downstream demand is limited and inventories rise. Coal-based ethanol prices will remain steady ahead of the holiday as orders are fulfilled. Fuel ethanol prices are predicted to maintain a stable trend, supported by supply guarantees from major producers.

5. Related Product Status

1. Dried Cassava: On September 24, FOB Bangkok quotes for Thai dried cassava chips were $245/ton; CNF quotes for Vietnamese dried cassava chips were $245/ton.
2. Corn: Corn market prices in sales regions continued their weak trend, adjusting in line with new harvests from producing areas.
3. Ethyl Acetate: Ethyl acetate market prices in East China remained stable, quoted at 6,450–6,550 CNY/ton ex-factory (cash settlement). The raw material acetic acid market remained firm, supporting bottom-of-range offers. Spot trading was quiet, dominated mainly by small-scale rigid demand purchases.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)