Ethanol prices in the domestic market remain stable.

1. Daily Summary

① Ethanol prices in Jilin, Northeast China remained stable;
② Prices in Heilongjiang, Northeast China remained stable;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable;
⑥ Downstream chemical orders were shipped;
⑦ Feedstock prices at Shandong refineries remained stable with a slight upward trend.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Daily Commentary: Based on the Heilongjiang region as a benchmark, 95% ethanol closed at 4900–5100 RMB/ton today. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with most factories holding no inventory and downstream stockpiling concluded. On the fuel front, factory operations remained stable, and major suppliers shipped orders. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable, though downstream demand was average. Ethanol prices in East China were stable, with limited new transaction volumes. Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable, with orders being shipped. Delivered prices for downstream products in Shandong remained stable with a slightly strong trend.

3. Production Dynamics

Today's ethanol capacity utilization rate maintained at 50.55%. Regarding edible ethanol production: Hongzhan in Heilongjiang resumed production but at low load rates; Zhongke Green halted production; Shenglong units are operating; Wanli Ethanol is producing; Dongfeng in Jilin halted production; Fukang units are operating; Yushu units are operating; Xintianlong units are operating; Baiyecheng in Inner Mongolia is producing; Hanyong in Henan is producing; Huaxing units are operating; Houyuan units are operating; Hongzhan in Sichuan is producing; Qufeng in Shandong is producing; Huating in East China is producing; Longhe halted production; Guannan Xinguan halted production; Luomaite halted production; Wanshen in Anhui is producing; COFCO Fuel in Anhui is producing; COFCO Zhaodong is producing; SDIC Jidong is producing; Hailun Bio is producing; Tieling is producing. Today, the theoretical profit margin for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang was -180.34 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will stay stable amid sluggish supply and demand. Prices in East China will remain stable as chemical orders are shipped. Prices in Henan will be stable to weak due to limited downstream demand and increasing inventory. Coal-based ethanol prices will remain stable as contract orders are fulfilled. Fuel ethanol prices will maintain a steady trend, ensuring supply for major customers.

5. Related Product Status

1. Dried Cassava: On September 30, Thai dried cassava FOB (Bangkok) quoted at USD 245/ton; Vietnamese dried cassava CNF quoted at USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: Corn prices in consumption areas continued their downward trend, adjusting in line with new crop prices from production areas.
3. Ethyl Acetate: The market price of ethyl acetate in East China rose by 75 RMB/ton, executing at 6650–6770 RMB/ton ex-factory cash basis. Holders offered firm quotes, while downstream buyers negotiated follow-up purchases. New transaction volumes were extremely limited, with market negotiations leaning towards the mid-to-low end.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)