Lead-in: As of June 11, the weekly average price of mixed C5 in Shandong was 5,714 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous week (an increase of 6.13%); in East China, the weekly average was 5,550 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton (an increase of 3.93%).
1. Review of High-Olefin C5 Market
During this period, domestic mixed C5 prices rose unilaterally. The price range in Shandong was 5,430–5,880 yuan/ton, while in East China it was 5,400–5,700 yuan/ton. International oil prices fell this week. The refined oil market in the Shandong region weakened and consolidated, with moderate trading sentiment. Although overall sentiment was bearish, mixed C5 supply remained tight, and procurement for ethylene feedstock occurred during the week. Supported by these dual positives, mixed C5 refineries held prices firm while selling, with traders and downstream plants actively following up, leading to good buying and selling sentiment throughout the week.
2. Price Comparison of Mixed C5 and Related Products
Table 2 Price Comparison of Mixed C5 and Related Products (yuan/ton)
| Product | Region | Current Period Avg | Previous Period Avg | Change | Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International crude futures | WTI | 90.62 | 91.64 | -1.02 | -1.11% | USD/bbl |
| Brent | 93.38 | 94.91 | -1.53 | -1.61% | USD/bbl | |
| Mixed C5 | Shandong | 5714 | 5384 | 330 | 6.13% | yuan/ton |
| East China | 5550 | 5340 | 210 | 3.93% | yuan/ton | |
| Raffinate oil | Shandong | 6132 | 5668 | 464 | 8.19% | yuan/ton |
| East China | 5980 | 5730 | 250 | 4.36% | yuan/ton | |
| Cracked C5 residue | National | 5194 | 5170 | 24 | 0.46% | yuan/ton |
| High-olefin C5 | Northwest | 6378 | 6161 | 217 | 3.52% | yuan/ton |
| Gasoline (92#) | Dongying | 8046 | 8062 | -16 | -0.20% | yuan/ton |
The overall C5 light component market moved higher. International oil prices fell this week. The refined oil market in Shandong weakened and consolidated, with moderate trading sentiment. Despite the bearish atmosphere, domestic light component prices overall rose. Supply has not recovered, and some materials were diverted to ethylene feedstock. With both supply and demand fundamentals providing positive support, C5 light component refineries held prices firm while selling, and traders and downstream plants actively entered the market, resulting in good buying and selling sentiment.
3. Market Outlook
International oil prices are expected to have room to rise next week, with WTI possibly in the range of $90–98/barrel and Brent at $92–100/barrel. The core logic behind the forecast for next week's oil price trend is renewed US-Iran military conflict and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Iran has announced a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, banning all types of vessels, which increases the risk to crude oil supply and provides support to oil prices.
Gasoline prices are expected to have room to decline next week. The retail price limit for refined oil products is expected to be lowered in the current round. Therefore, the bullish impact of news on the oil market is limited. Refineries, still under inventory pressure, will focus their marketing efforts on sales, while end-users and traders remain cautious in procurement, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is expected that gasoline and diesel prices from independent refineries in Shandong will first rise and then fall next week, ultimately closing down by about 50 yuan/ton.
In summary, the domestic mixed C5 market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias next week. With international oil prices having room to rise and support from high costs, the decline in the gasoline market will be limited. In the short term, the supply and demand fundamentals for mixed C5 remain positive. It is expected that the mixed C5 market will consolidate with a bullish bias in the near future.
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