① The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, with crude oil and naphtha prices consolidating at high levels.
② Domestic plants are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts, leading to a slight increase in production volume.
③ Downstream demand is gradually recovering, resulting in steady improvement in industry profits.
In October, domestic butadiene market prices fluctuated within a range. Although the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation kept crude oil and naphtha prices high—providing some cost support—the impact on market trends was limited. This was due to the gradual restart of units at Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical, coupled with a maintenance shutdown at a plant in Shandong, which resulted in only a slight increase in domestic supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand recovery remained slow; operating rates at downstream facilities stayed low, indicating weak purchasing intent for butadiene. Consequently, cautious wait-and-see sentiment caused prices to weaken slightly in the early part of the month.
However, in the latter half of the month, news emerged regarding shutdowns at North China Huajin and Nanjing Chengzhi butadiene units. Combined with fermenting reports of export transactions from the East China region and stronger trends in major downstream synthetic products, bullish sentiment gradually gained traction. Sellers became increasingly reluctant to offer low prices. Although downstream acceptance of high raw material costs remained limited, the scarcity of low-priced supply pushed the market to oscillate towards the upside. As of the publication date, the average delivered price for butadiene in Central Shandong, China, was 13,698 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 520 RMB/ton (-3.65%).
Table: Comparison of Regional Price Changes for Domestic Butadiene (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Region | Market | Current Average Price | Previous Period Average Price | Same Period Last Year | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | Central Shandong | 13,698 | 14,218 | 8,372 | -3.65% | 63.63% |
| East China | Jiangsu | 13,595 | 14,063 | 8,303 | -3.32% | 63.74% |
| Jiangyin | 13,414 | 13,873 | 8,104 | -3.30% | 65.52% | |
| Zhejiang | 13,595 | 14,063 | 8,379 | -3.32% | 62.25% | |
| West Coast of Yellow Sea | 13,450 | 13,998 | 8,196 | -3.92% | 64.11% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
① Uncertainty regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and potential demand for domestic supplies from Japan and South Korea.
② Guidance provided by changes in capacity utilization rates and new order follow-ups in downstream and terminal industries under high-cost pressure.
From the supply perspective, Shanghai Petrochemical plans to shut down its butadiene unit, while some plants in South China will have brief shutdowns, and a facility in East China will remain offline. The expectation of decreased butadiene production provides some support to the market. Additionally, crude oil prices remain high, offering strong cost-side support. News regarding exports of domestic supplies continues to ferment. On the demand side, as downstream industry profits recover, some downstream facilities are expected to increase their operating rates, potentially leading to a slight increase in butadiene purchasing demand. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, market sentiment is strengthening, prompting sellers to raise their offers. Although downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials remains strong, creating significant barriers to high-level transactions, the scarcity of low-priced supply persists. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. The estimated delivered price in Central Shandong is 14,300 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of +3.98%. Market participants should monitor guidance from changes in domestic trade and export demand for butadiene downstream and terminal products.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Butadiene Monthly Report.
Comments
0