Strong upward momentum, deepening wait-and-see sentiment (Oct 23–29, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. October Long-term Contract Pricing for Downstream Refrigerant Industry:

   • Sinochem Taicang: 14,600 RMB/ton
   • Shangyu: 14,500 RMB/ton
   • Juhua: 14,500–14,550 RMB/ton
   • Meilan: 14,800 RMB/ton
   • Dongyue: 14,760 RMB/ton

2. Assessment of Weekly Industry Capacity Utilization and Production Output: Expected to remain stable.

3. Fluorinated refrigerants are quoting firm prices, with transactions gradually aligning with these levels.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Weekly Price Table for Domestic Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF)

This week, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) market saw strong upward momentum alongside increased wait-and-see attitudes. As this period coincides with the bidding and pricing cycle, bullish sentiment is prevalent in the market. On the raw material front, the sulfuric acid market exhibited regional divergence within the month; while the northern market showed weakness, regions like Jiangxi and Fujian faced continuous cost pressure due to smooth inventory depletion before holidays and supply contraction. On the production side, major northern plants have not yet signaled a restart, and some units experienced operational disruptions due to prolonged run-times. The fluorosilicic acid process saw some recovery driven by autumn fertilizer demand. Meanwhile, downstream demand did not decline significantly as previously anticipated, with most consumers maintaining their production rhythms. Overall supply-demand balance remains tight, prompting producers to push prices higher. Currently, the pricing center has shifted upward significantly, awaiting further market developments. As of publication, the mainstream delivered price for AHF in East China is referenced at 15,300–15,650 RMB/ton, and in Shandong at 15,500–15,600 RMB/ton.

3. Raw Material Market Analysis

Fluorite Weekly Market Analysis:

This week, the domestic 97% fluorite concentrate market was characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiments, with fluctuating atmosphere. Coinciding with the bidding and pricing cycle for downstream AHF, bearish sentiment toward fluorite was initially evident. However, the pricing center rose sharply due to aggressive supply adjustments and cost support. Procurement prices from major southern enterprises increased by 150 RMB/ton, guiding market sentiment. Previously, suppliers had been pushing prices up based on expectations of tighter future supply and cost factors, which were subsequently absorbed by the market. On the demand side, bearish sentiment was strong earlier, particularly in southern markets where negotiation centers trended downward. In contrast, northern markets, after months of price increases, saw intense pressure to lower prices. The supply-demand tug-of-war is expected to deepen further, awaiting more information to guide the market. Current spot delivered prices across various domestic regions are referenced as follows: Inner Mongolia 3,300–3,400 RMB/ton; Zhejiang 3,500–3,600 RMB/ton; Jiangxi/Fujian 3,700–3,750 RMB/ton; Shandong 3,550–3,650 RMB/ton; Northwest 3,400–3,450 RMB/ton; Henan/Anhui 3,450–3,500 RMB/ton. As of publication, the mainstream delivered price for domestic fluorite wet powder is referenced at 3,300–3,750 RMB/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:

The average domestic sulfuric acid price this period stood at 1,395 RMB/ton. The overall market showed mixed trends with distinct regional divergence. Price increases were mainly concentrated in Anhui and Guangxi, where some key acid plants remained under maintenance, leading to contracted effective supply and low inventories, thereby driving quotes up. Demand remained generally flat; the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry showed no significant improvement, with operating rates staying low, while chemical industries maintained essential restocking. Regarding raw materials, sulfur prices continued to decline, weakening cost support for sulfur-based acid production. Consequently, the sulfur-based acid market in East China faced downward pressure. Overall, localized supply benefits from maintenance offset weak costs and sluggish demand, sustaining market contention. In the short term, the sulfuric acid market is likely to continue its divergent trajectory. As of now, the delivered plant price for 98% smelter-grade acid in Guangxi ranged around 1,450–1,550 RMB/ton, up 3.57%/0.00% week-on-week; the ex-factory price for 98% ore-based acid in Shandong was 1,200–1,350 RMB/ton, down 11.11%/3.57% week-on-week.

R22:

This period, mainstream large-scale manufacturers in East China maintained firm quotations for domestic and export trade of fluorinated refrigerant R22, although the market price center declined. As of publication, the reference quotation from mainstream large manufacturers in East China was 24,000 RMB/ton (combined domestic/export quote); the mainstream market quotation in East China was 17,000–18,000 RMB/ton, while the mainstream transaction center for R22 (feedstock grade) was 13,000–14,000 RMB/ton. For the domestic ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances) market, loose bulk demand continued to contract, channel social inventories remained high, and costs stayed elevated. Essential purchasing demand dropped significantly, forcing some channel holders to sell off slowly under pressure. Despite inventory pressure, the industry operating rate for R22 (ODS + feedstock grade) stabilized at 68% (flat compared to the previous period). Feedstock-grade R22 prices rose due to cost support, and export quotations also climbed during the reporting window. In the terminal market, both northern and southern regions entered the off-season, with demand shrinking substantially. Channel holders predominantly held bearish views, adjusting quotations to actively sell, while waiting for official quotes from mainstream large manufacturers. In the short term, mainstream factory quotations remain firm, operating loads are low and trending downward, and the market awaits downstream digestion. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream factory quotations for fluorinated refrigerants in East China will remain firm, with the reference quotation for R22 (ODS) at 24,000 RMB/ton.

R32:

This period, mainstream factories for fluorinated refrigerant R32 maintained firm quotations, controlling volume to protect prices. As of publication, the reference quotation from mainstream large manufacturers in East China was 65,500 RMB/ton (combined domestic/export quote); the mainstream market quotation in East China was 63,500–64,500 RMB/ton. Due to a significant year-on-year reduction in terminal production scheduling and a shift towards softer industry demand, long-term contract pricing for R32 edged slightly higher, while the spot market remained firmly sideways. Additionally, current month exports of R32 totaled 4,354.17 tons, up 70.10% month-on-month but down 34.29% year-on-year, with cumulative year-on-year change at -53.13%. The export trend exhibits "volume contraction and price increase," reflecting a globally tight supply situation under quota constraints. Logistics channels partially cleared between Q2 and Q3 of 2026, with backlogged orders fulfilled intensively in August and September. The near-term outlook suggests a pulse-like rebound driven by restored shipping rhythms and phased restocking, while weaker cumulative year-on-year figures result from structural demand contraction. Statistically, the industry operating rate for R32 stabilized at 48% (flat compared to the previous period), indicating that balancing limited demand space is preferable to high operating rates leading to inventory accumulation. Market intelligence suggests that supported by high and firm official quotations for R32 and R125, the price range for blended refrigerant R410A remained weakly stable. Chempricehub forecasts that the ex-factory quotation for R32 will be referenced at 65,500 RMB/ton (combined domestic/export quote), and for R410A at 59,500 RMB/ton.

5. Next Week Market Forecast

Based on the above analysis, market sentiment has cooled, though the sulfuric acid market continues to operate at high levels. Recently, traders have deepened their wait-and-see attitude regarding the restart status of major northern plants. Chempricehub Information forecasts that the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market will maintain high-level operations next week.