Stable Cost with Sideways Consolidation (Oct 8–15, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① Corn prices in Heilongjiang weakened slightly this period.
② Ethanol prices in Heilongjiang (Northeast China) rose slightly this period.
③ Ethanol prices in Jilin (Northeast China) rose slightly this period.
④ Prices of coal-based ethanol in major production areas remained stable this period.
⑤ Prices in the East China market remained stable this period.
⑥ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable this period.
⑦ Dried cassava chip prices remained stable this period.
⑧ Delivered prices to downstream refineries declined this period.
⑨ Delivered prices to downstream chemical industries rose this period.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Unit: CNY/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Specifically, in Northeast China, corn ethanol prices in Jilin rose slightly, and corn ethanol prices in Heilongjiang also saw a modest increase. The supply of bio-fermentation ethanol within the market fluctuated slightly this period. Zhongke Green was producing, while Shenglong’s unit was shut down; Dongfeng Hualiang’s unit was running but had not yet released products. Hongzhan’s unit was operating normally, Jixian’s unit was unstable, Wanli was producing normally, COFCO Zhaodong’s fuel ethanol production was stable, Zhongke Green was producing, and Shenglong’s unit remained shut down. In Jilin, Fukang and Xintianlong units were operating, Dongfeng Hualiang started feeding materials, and Yushu’s unit was producing. The Zhalantun unit was operating, as well as Guotou Hailun, Jidong, and Tieling units. In Henan Mengzhou, two factories were operating normally, Houyuan’s unit resumed production after a short stoppage, and Xinxing Bio was producing. In Sichuan, Hongzhan’s unit was operating. In Anhui, COFCO’s Bengbu facility had both lines running, while the Suzhou unit was shut down; Wanneng was producing. In Shandong, Qufeng was producing, Jiyinmeng was shut down, and Huating was producing. In Guangxi, COFCO was shut down, while Xintiande and Jinyuan units were producing. On the cost side, the national average corn price declined. Corn prices fell in both Northeast China and Henan. Inventory of premium-grade ethanol at plants in Northeast China was tight, leading to price increases. Anhydrous ethanol shipments from Jilin were average, resulting in slight price softening. Downstream chemical industries maintained rigid demand purchasing, plant inventories were low, freight rates declined, and delivered prices softened slightly. Cassava ethanol prices in East China remained stable, as did prices in Shandong and Anhui regions. Operating rates for cassava ethanol plants were low, with shipments fulfilling contract orders and limited inventory levels across plants. Downstream chemical industries engaged in rigid-demand purchasing, causing delivered prices to rise slightly, with some consumption shifting to coal-based ethanol. Wheat-based ethanol quotes from Shandong plants remained stable. Downstream rigid-demand purchasing led to declining delivered prices, primarily sourced from Northeast China. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable. Two facilities in Mengzhou operated normally, while Houyuan’s unit experienced a short stoppage; pickup volumes at factory gates were acceptable. The ethanol market in Sichuan remained stable. Hongzhan’s unit in Sichuan operated normally, local supply quotes were stable, and some branded customers consumed local supplies, giving Henan-sourced deliveries a price advantage. Prices in South China remained stable. Cassava ethanol supply in South China was steady. COFCO’s unit in Guangxi was shut down, while Xintiande, Jinyuan (primarily for self-consumption), Haiying, and Guangxi Wanwei units were producing. Transactions were driven by downstream rigid demand.

3. Next Week Market Forecast

Ethanol prices are expected to remain largely stable in the next period. Pre-holiday stocking has begun, but due to rising freight costs, plants are offering logistics discounts to keep ex-factory prices stable, resulting in increased delivered prices in consumption areas.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Weekly Report.