Significant downward shift in costs accelerates the decline of ethylene glycol

1. Today's Summary

① Ethylene glycol (MEG) inventory at major East China ports stood at 162,000 tons, up by 22,000 tons from the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices declined, while coal prices remained stable.
③ Shipments from major East China ports decreased compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic MEG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On November 5, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 5,465 CNY/ton, a drop of 202. The closing delivered price in the South China market was 5,750 CNY/ton, down 150. The USD-denominated closing price was $665/ton, down $35.

The MEG market experienced a significant downward trend today. At the morning open, spot prices in Zhangjiagang gapped down sharply due to the steep decline in crude oil, trading around 5,450. The market saw sideways consolidation during the morning with limited changes. In the afternoon, prices rebounded slightly, and by the close, spot negotiations rose to around 5,490. Spot basis strengthened, moving from approximately Jan+545 in the morning to Jan+590 by the close. The South China market performed weakly, with cautious downstream procurement and sluggish transactions.

3. Spot Basis

Spot basis strengthened, rising from approximately Jan+545 in the morning to Jan+590 by the close.

Table 2: Changes in Jiangsu Spot Market Basis (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Rates by MEG Process Route (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On November 5, the domestic MEG overall operating rate was 63.05% (down 0.44%), integrated plants were at 60.78% (down 0.68%), and coal-to-MEG plants remained stable at 67.05%.

In November 2026, total domestic MEG capacity increased to 30.569 million tons. Among this, syngas-based MEG capacity was adjusted to 11.05 million tons (Xinjiang Tianying successfully upgraded its capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 tons via technical renovation; Xinjiang Tianye Phase II’s 300,000-ton unit was excluded). Non-syngas capacity remained stable at 19.519 million tons.

Table 4: MEG Profitability by Process Route (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Port Shipment Status:

On November 4, 2026, daily MEG shipments from a major warehouse zone in Zhangjiagang were 2,800 tons, down 53.33% MoM. Daily MEG shipments from two major warehouse zones in Taicang were 1,000 tons, down 82.76% MoM.

Major Port Inventory Status (Updated on Mondays and Thursdays):

As of November 5, total MEG inventory in major East China ports was 162,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous period. Specifically, Zhangjiagang held 85,000 tons, Taicang 55,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou 12,000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu 10,000 tons. Regarding shipments, Zhangjiagang averaged 4,100 tons/day, and the two Taicang warehouses averaged 3,400 tons/day.

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of East China Port Inventory (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Sentiment Forecast from Domestic MEG Upstream and Downstream Participants (Updated Every Thursday)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Outlook

Impacted by the US midterm elections, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell sharply. Geopolitical tensions also showed signs of easing. With MEG costs declining significantly, market support weakened. There is still room for short-term downside testing. Tomorrow’s East China spot ex-warehouse price is expected to range between 5,400 and 5,500 CNY/ton.

7. Related Products

1. Related Product Prices

Table 7: Polyester Chain Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Load Rates for Polyester-related Products

PTA Load Rate: Stable at 70.85%, with a capacity base of 93.30 million tons/year.
Polyester Load Rate: Stable at 74.69%, with a capacity base of 91.025 million tons/year.

3. Daily Sales Ratios for Polyester Products

Today (Nov 5, 2026), the average sales ratio for sample polyester filament enterprises was 24.9%, up 0.6% from the previous trading day’s close. Manufacturer sentiment diverged, with some offering discounts to move inventory. Downstream users continued their bearish stance, resulting in cold market activity. Specific sales ratios were: 50%, 20%, 40%, 26%, 20%, 20%, 23%, 15%, 10%, 15%, 10%, 30%, 30%, 25%, 20%, 0%, 20%, 40%, 20%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 20%, 40%.

Today (Nov 5, 2026), the sales ratio for Chinese direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was 49.75%, down 1.32% from the previous trading day. Specific sales ratios were: 123%, 100%, 30%, 60%, 10%, 30%, 10%, 0%.

Today (Nov 5, 2026), the sales ratio for sample domestic PET chip enterprises was 16.71%, down 4.12% from the previous period (Nov 4, 2026). Significant cost declines weighed on sentiment, keeping factory sales sluggish. Specific sales ratios were: 0%, 40%, 10%, 50%, 0%, 20%, 0%, 20%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)