I. Key Focus Points
International crude oil prices rose: On Friday (October 16), the NYMEX WTI November futures contract closed at $101.41/barrel, up $3.44/barrel (+3.51% week-on-week). The ICE Brent December futures contract closed at $109.86/barrel, up $3.94/barrel (+3.72% week-on-week). The INE Crude Oil December 2026 futures contract fell by CNY 2.2 to CNY 723/barrel during the day session but rose by CNY 16.8 to CNY 739.8/barrel in the night session.
As of October 15, the cost of propylene production via naphtha cracking was approximately CNY 9,560/ton, via PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) was approximately CNY 10,292/ton, and via methanol-to-olefins (MTO) using externally sourced methanol was approximately CNY 11,852/ton.
As of October 16, the Shandong spot price for propylene was CNY 10,675/ton, while Polypropylene (PP) powder (Linyi 045 grade) was priced at CNY 10,550/ton, indicating a narrow spread between the two commodities.
Core Logic: Rising international crude oil prices, minor fluctuations in production costs, and a narrow price spread between PP and propylene.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 9 | Oct 16 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 10,240–10,350 | 10,650–10,700 | +3.69% |
| Propylene | East China | 10,150–10,400 | 10,250–10,650 | +1.70% |
| Propylene | Northeast China | 9,880–9,990 | 10,120–10,230 | +2.42% |
| Propylene | Northwest China | 9,875–9,875 | 10,000–10,000 | +1.27% |
| Notes: 1. This table reflects mainstream transaction prices in key propylene markets; all prices are VAT-inclusive, denominated in CNY/ton. 2. Prices represent point-in-time values from the two preceding working weeks relative to the current report date, not weekly averages. 3. Change rate indicates week-on-week variation. |
III. Data Table
| Propylene Industry Supply & Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Oct 8 | Oct 15 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
| Weekly Output | 1.1412 million tons | 1.1354 million tons | -0.51% | ↘ |
| Capacity Utilization (PDH) | 69.27% | 70.87% | +2.31 pp | ↘ |
| Production Profit (PDH) | 36 | 270 | +234 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. Daily output data compares national sample enterprise daily production over the past two working weeks. 2. Capacity utilization is defined as the ratio of actual device output to installed capacity, reflecting production activity levels. 3. Production profit is an industry-level metric representing overall profitability in major regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average market price. |
IV. Market Outlook
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