I. Key Points
International Crude Oil Prices Declined: On Friday, September 25, the NYMEX WTI crude oil November contract closed at $92.41/bbl, down $2.20/bbl (-2.33% WoW). The ICE Brent crude oil November contract closed at $104.32/bbl, down $2.28/bbl (-2.14% WoW). The INE crude oil futures market in China was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.
Propylene Production Costs: As of September 23, the cost of producing propylene via naphtha cracking was approximately CNY 8,876/ton; via PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) it was approximately CNY 8,640/ton; and via external methanol sourcing for MTP (Methanol-to-Propylene) it was approximately CNY 12,152/ton.
Shandong Market Prices: As of September 24, the spot price of propylene in Shandong was CNY 9,450/ton, while polypropylene powder (Linyi 045 grade) was priced at CNY 9,800/ton, resulting in a narrow spread between the two.
Fujian Meide Shutdown: Fujian Meide’s Phase II 1 million tons/year PDH unit shut down on September 25. The restart time is TBD.
Quanzhou Guoheng Shutdown: Quanzhou Guoheng’s 660,000 tons/year PDH unit shut down on September 25. The restart time is TBD.
Core Logic: Declining international crude oil prices, minor fluctuations in production costs, and a narrow spread between PP and propylene prices.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 18 | Sep 24 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 9,650–9,820 | 9,430–9,470 | -3.42% |
| Propylene | East China | 9,750–9,800 | 9,500–9,550 | -2.56% |
| Propylene | Northeast China | 9,270–9,380 | 9,030–9,140 | -2.57% |
| Propylene | Northwest China | 9,290–9,290 | 9,052–9,052 | -2.56% |
Notes:
III. Data Table
| Propylene Industry Supply & Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Sep 17 | Sep 24 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
| Weekly Output | 1.1789 million tons | 1.1595 million tons | -1.65% | ↘ |
| Capacity Utilization (PDH) | 79.21% | 72.37% | -8.64% | ↘ |
| Production Profit (PDH) | CNY 1,504/ton | CNY 1,072/ton | -28.72% | ↘ |
Notes:
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