[Propylene]: Morning Market Insights

1. Key Focus Points

1. International Crude Oil Prices Decline: On Tuesday (November 10), the NYMEX crude oil futures contract for December closed at $86.04/barrel, down $0.81/barrel (-0.93% MoM); the ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for January closed at $91.49/barrel, down $1.08/barrel (-1.17% MoM). The INE crude oil futures contract for January 2027 in China fell by 31.4 to 599.3 yuan/barrel, and dropped a further 9.1 to 590.2 yuan/barrel during the night session.
2. Propylene Production Costs: As of November 9, the cost of propylene production via naphtha was approximately 9,097 yuan/ton; via PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) it was approximately 10,650 yuan/ton; and via externally sourced methanol it was approximately 11,326 yuan/ton.
3. Price Spread Narrowing: As of November 10, the Shandong propylene market price was 11,100 yuan/ton, while Polypropylene (PP) powder (Linyi 045 grade) was priced at 10,700 yuan/ton, resulting in a narrow spread between the two.
4. Wanhua Penglai Plant Restart: Wanhua’s 900,000 tons/year PDH unit in Penglai shut down on November 6 and restarted on November 9.
5. Zhenhua Petroleum Plant Restart: Zhenhua Petroleum’s 750,000 tons/year PDH unit shut down on September 16 and restarted on November 10.
6. Ningbo Jinfa Plant Restart: Ningbo Jinfa’s (Phase I) 600,000 tons/year PDH unit shut down on September 8 and restarted on November 10.

Core Logic: Declining international crude oil prices, narrow fluctuations in production costs, and a tight price spread between PP and propylene.

2. Price Table

3. Market Outlook

International crude oil prices continue their downward trend, weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, downstream buyers remain cautious, and disparities in sales performance among enterprises persist. Consequently, propylene market prices are expected to trade weakly today.

4. Data Calendar