I. Key Points
International crude oil prices fell: On Tuesday (October 27), the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract for December delivery closed at $99.90/bbl, down $1.86/bbl (-1.83% WoW); the ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for December delivery closed at $113.88/bbl, down $1.93/bbl (-1.67% WoW). The INE Shanghai crude oil futures contract for December 2026 delivery fell by 8.1 CNY to 731.6 CNY/barrel, while the night session dropped by 18.7 CNY to 712.9 CNY/barrel.
Propylene production costs: As of October 26, the cost of producing propylene via naphtha cracking was approximately 9,989 CNY/ton; via PDH (propane dehydrogenation) it was approximately 10,319 CNY/ton; and via methanol-to-olefins (MTO) using externally sourced methanol it was approximately 12,468 CNY/ton.
Shandong market prices: As of October 27, the spot price of propylene in Shandong was 10,850 CNY/ton, while polypropylene powder (Linyi 045 grade) was 10,950 CNY/ton, resulting in a narrow spread between the two.
Core Logic: Declining international crude oil prices, fluctuating costs within a narrow range, and a tight spread between PP and propylene.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 11,000–11,000 | 10,800–10,900 | -1.36% |
| Propylene | East China | 10,900–11,000 | 10,800–11,000 | -0.46% |
| Propylene | Northeast China | 10,580–10,690 | 10,430–10,540 | -1.41% |
| Propylene | Northwest China | 10,300–10,610 | 10,465–10,465 | +0.10% |
| Notes: 1. This table reflects mainstream transaction prices in key propylene markets, all inclusive of tax, with units in CNY/ton. 2. Prices represent point-in-time values from the previous two working weeks relative to the current week, not weekly averages. 3. Change rate refers to the week-over-week percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
Although international crude oil prices continue their downward trend, demand from downstream sectors remains supported by essential procurement needs. Additionally, some actual transactions have shown slight premiums, providing a floor for price movements. Consequently, the decline in the propylene market is expected to moderate today.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Item | Release Date | Previous Value | Expected Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Production | Thursday 16:00 PM | 1.1379 million tons | ↗ |
| Capacity Utilization (PDH) | Thursday 16:00 PM | 72.95% | ↗ |
| Downstream Operating Rate (PP Powder) | Thursday 16:00 PM | 21.41% | ↗ |
| Downstream Operating Rate (PO) | Thursday 16:00 PM | 70.26% | ↗ |
| Notes: 1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding ±3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within ±0–3%. |
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