Introduction: Since September, PX prices have continued to rise. Tightness in the spot PX market has led to a November floating premium of +75 USD/ton. Amidst raw material shortages for downstream PTA, basis levels remain elevated, while profits across the polyester industry chain stay low. Consequently, current capacity utilization rates remain at extremely low levels.
Since September, PX prices have risen due to higher crude oil prices and favorable refining margins. This increased demand for xylene (MX) made it difficult to procure PX feedstock, exacerbating tightness in the PX spot market. As a result, absolute PX prices rose, along with processing margins against naphtha. During the month, Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 1.6 million ton/year unit underwent maintenance, as did Fujia Dahuahua’s 700,000 ton/year PX unit. Meanwhile, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 550,000 ton/year unit and Fuhai Chuang’s 1.6 million ton/year PX unit restarted operations, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. By September 27, the average Asian PX price stood at $1,224.32/ton CFR China and $1,203.32/ton FOB Korea, representing month-on-month increases of +12.32% and +12.56%, respectively, and year-on-year increases of +47.99% and +49.43%. Sinopec’s settlement price for PX in September was 9,655 RMB/ton (with a discount of 15 RMB/ton for cash payment).
During this period, the spread between PX and naphtha widened, while the spread between PX and MX narrowed. Favorable refining economics and tight MX supply made PX feedstock procurement difficult, intensifying spot PX tightness. This drove up absolute PX prices and naphtha-based processing margins. The average PX-Naphtha spread was $318.57/ton, up $21.26/ton month-on-month. The average PX-MX spread was $85.24/ton, down $39.73/ton month-on-month.
On the supply side, during the month, Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 1.6 million ton/year unit and Fujia Dahuahua’s 700,000 ton/year PX unit underwent maintenance. Conversely, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 550,000 ton/year unit and Fuhai Chuang’s 1.6 million ton/year PX unit restarted, boosting capacity utilization. Industry operating rates reached 77.84% this month, an increase of 7.46 percentage points month-on-month. Monthly industry output totaled 2.858 million tons, up 10.6% month-on-month.
Regarding demand, unplanned outages increased in September. Units at Dalian #2, Baihong, Zhongtai, Fuhua, Hainan #2, Fengming #1, and Ineos #3 experienced varying degrees of reduced loads or shutdowns, while the Sanfangxiang unit restarted. Total domestic PTA supply reached 5.8429 million tons, an increase of 914,600 tons month-on-month.
Table 1: Domestic PX Price Comparison Around National Day Holiday Over the Past Five Years
Unit: %, USD/ton
| Year | Week Before National Day | During National Day | Week After National Day | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 900.77 | 893.13 | 942.50 | 4.63% |
| 2022 | 1045.07 | 1094.20 | 1078.32 | 3.18% |
| 2023 | 1118.60 | 1081.77 | 1047.34 | -6.37% |
| 2024 | 854.73 | 910.00 | 899.34 | 5.22% |
| 2025 | 812.00 | 801.00 | 792.00 | -2.46% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
A comparison of polyester bottle chip price changes around the National Day holiday over the past five years reveals that prices generally declined after the holiday compared to pre-holiday levels in 2023 and 2025. In 2021, 2022, and 2024, prices showed mixed movements but often stabilized or adjusted post-holiday. Looking ahead, from the supply perspective, Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 1 million ton/year unit is scheduled to restart next month, which is expected to increase supply. On the demand side, PTA plants may maintain high operating rates, supporting PX consumption. However, given the current tight spot market and high basis levels, any significant supply increase could pressure prices downward. Overall, the market balance remains tight, but the upcoming restart of major units warrants close monitoring.
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