① Driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through key straits, commodity futures markets surged to new highs.
② Capacity utilization rates in China's phthalic anhydride (PA) industry continued to decline, exacerbating supply shortages in the naphthalene-based PA sector.
Table 1: Monthly Price Overview of O-Xylene and Phthalic Anhydride (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Year-over-Year Average | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O-Xylene | Jiangsu | 10110 | 9547 | 6194 | 5.90% | 63.22% |
| Phthalic Anhydride | Jiangsu (O-Xylene Method) | 10307 | 9850 | 5947 | 4.64% | 73.31% |
| Hebei (Naphthalene Method) | 9403 | 9021 | 5631 | 4.23% | 66.99% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In October, domestic prices for phthalic anhydride rose, with cost-side and supply-side factors serving as the primary drivers. During the month, geopolitical conflicts and strait closures caused crude oil and commodity futures prices to spike, leading to significant increases across the aromatic hydrocarbon chain. This sustained rise in costs pushed phthalic anhydride market prices higher. Due to insufficient supply of the raw material o-xylene, capacity utilization in the domestic o-xylene method PA sector remained low. Simultaneously, concentrated maintenance shutdowns at naphthalene method PA units led to a marked decline in overall industry capacity utilization. Meanwhile, demand from major downstream plasticizers improved significantly, increasing consumption of phthalic anhydride and intensifying supply tightness. These factors drove an expanded increase in domestic PA prices, reaching the highest levels seen in nearly a decade.
① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through straits drove commodity futures markets to new highs.
② Capacity utilization rates in China's phthalic anhydride industry continued to fall, tightening market supply.
③ Concentrated maintenance shutdowns at naphthalene method PA units exacerbated supply shortages.
Supply of the raw material o-xylene is expected to see a slight increase, but the tight supply situation will persist, limiting improvements in capacity utilization for the domestic o-xylene method PA sector. However, as maintenance shutdowns for naphthalene method PA units conclude, combined with the release of new production capacity, supply increments in the domestic naphthalene method PA sector are expected to be significant, potentially becoming a main constraint on the market. With anticipated increases in operating rates for the o-xylene method PA sector, its supply will grow, while imports remain negligible. Under expectations of rising capacity utilization in the naphthalene method sector, the tight supply situation may ease to some extent, leading to clear overall supply increments in the domestic PA industry. On the demand side, a downward trend is likely, resulting in reduced consumption. The gap between supply and demand may widen, suggesting that domestic PA prices could experience a correction from high levels in November.
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