① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and maritime shipping disruptions have driven commodity futures markets to new highs.
② The tight supply situation for domestic ortho-xylene (OX) remains difficult to alleviate.
Table 1: Monthly Price Overview of Ortho-Xylene and Phthalic Anhydride (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Year-on-Year Same Period Average | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ortho-Xylene | Jiangsu | 10,110 | 9,547 | 6,194 | 5.90% | 63.22% |
| Phthalic Anhydride | Jiangsu (Ortho-Xylene Process) | 10,307 | 9,850 | 5,947 | 4.64% | 73.31% |
| Hebei (Naphthalene Process) | 9,403 | 9,021 | 5,631 | 4.23% | 66.99% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In October, domestic ortho-xylene market prices rose, with cost-side factors becoming the primary driver of market movements. During the month, geopolitical conflicts and maritime shipping disruptions caused crude oil and commodity futures prices to surge, leading to significant price increases across the aromatics industry chain. This sustained upward pressure on costs became the main factor pushing market prices higher. Although some plants restarted, leading to a recovery in the domestic ortho-xylene industry’s capacity utilization rate, the spot supply shortage intensified due to insufficient raw material supply combined with increased export transactions, further driving market prices to new highs.
① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and maritime shipping disruptions have driven commodity futures markets to new highs.
② Limited improvement in the domestic ortho-xylene industry’s capacity utilization rate means the tight spot supply situation is difficult to alleviate.
Overall, the main contradictions in the domestic ortho-xylene market for November are likely to focus on supply and cost aspects. As plant maintenance enters its final stages, the domestic ortho-xylene supply shortage will be alleviated to some extent. The weakening of key supporting factors from the previous period may exert some downward pressure on the market; however, strong cost support from the upstream aromatics industry chain will maintain robust overall market support. It is expected that domestic ortho-xylene prices will remain at high levels in November, with a potential for price softening in mid-to-late November.
On the supply side, the overall operating rate for the ortho-xylene industry is expected to increase in the next period, partially relieving the supply gap. On the demand side, the major downstream phthalic anhydride industry (using the ortho-xylene process) is expected to see increased operating rates due to improved ortho-xylene supply. Additionally, anticipated growth in exports will contribute to increased demand.
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