As of October 30, 2026, the monthly average sample inventory of sulfur at Chinese ports stood at 1.11 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month (+16.84% MoM), but a decrease of 53.16% year-on-year. The primary driver was an increase in arrivals at major domestic ports in October compared to the previous month. However, downstream plants delayed their shipment withdrawals, leading to the observed month-over-month growth in port inventories.
Next month, sample sulfur inventories at Chinese ports are expected to continue rising. This is primarily because currently known arrival plans for November at major domestic ports are quite limited. Meanwhile, key downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises face export restrictions on phosphate fertilizers and sulfuric acid. Additionally, resources from major refineries are being prioritized for domestic supply security. Consequently, the pace of resource withdrawal from ports is likely to remain slow, hindering inventory depletion and making a month-over-month increase in port stocks highly probable.
In October, the trend in sample sulfur inventory data at Chinese ports showed a reasonable negative correlation with sulfur market prices, although the statistical correlation was weak. The main reason is that while port arrivals were relatively limited, the slow pace of downstream withdrawals ultimately led to a rebound in port inventories. Downstream companies significantly reduced their withdrawal intensity due to policy measures summarized as "one guarantee, two restrictions": directed domestic supply security for local resources, and export controls on sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers. These policies have clearly suppressed rigid demand in the domestic sulfur market. Furthermore, some end-users sold long-term contract (LTSA) resources into the spot market. This erosion of market sentiment naturally triggered a rapid decline in prices. Thus, the inverse relationship between rising inventories and falling prices exists, but the increase in port inventory is not the dominant factor driving the market downturn.
Sample Description:
The data represents real-time sulfur inventory statistics for 9 Chinese ports collected by Chempricehub on the day of publication, with a sample coverage rate of 90%.
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