Prompt

1. Key Highlights This Month

1. Production: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum fluoride plants in October was 37.3%, a month-on-month increase of 16.1 percentage points. The pressure from raw material costs, which had previously constrained production, gradually eased. Coupled with the persistently strong market trend, improved profitability boosted production enthusiasm, leading most enterprises to raise their line operating loads. Previously shut-down units for maintenance have gradually resumed operations, resulting in a steady increase in supply within the market and driving a significant rise in overall industry operating rates.

2. Tender Prices: In October, the reference tender price for aluminum fluoride by Chinalco (China Aluminum Corporation) was 12,800 RMB/ton. The reference tender price range for aluminum fluoride by Shandong Weiqiao was 12,600–13,000 RMB/ton.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub

Taking the East China market as a benchmark, the domestic aluminum fluoride market continued its strong performance in October. The transaction center shifted upward to 12,600 RMB/ton this month, representing a 10.04% increase. A review of the current period is as follows: On the cost side, demand for fluorite and aluminum hydroxide remained weak while supply was ample, leading to synchronized price declines. Sulfuric acid prices fell from high levels due to supply-demand mismatches. Overall upstream raw material weakness alleviated production cost pressures for aluminum fluoride enterprises, restoring profit margins and improving market sentiment. On the supply side, reduced cost pressures combined with a recovering market boosted production enthusiasm. Manufacturers increased operating loads, raising the industry operating rate to 37.3%. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to deplete inventories, with rigid procurement needs being steadily released. Meanwhile, downstream tender models were optimized, making pricing mechanisms more market-oriented. This effectively reduced disorderly low-price competition, providing sustained support for aluminum fluoride prices and promoting healthy market operation. Based on comprehensive analysis, the domestic aluminum fluoride market in November still has upside potential under the joint influence of cost support and tight supply. The transaction center is expected to rise to 13,000–13,200 RMB/ton.

3. Key Factor Analysis

Cost Perspective

Fluorite: The fluorite market experienced range-bound fluctuations with limited volatility during this period. The market for 97% fluorite concentrate showed mixed performance in October, influenced by various factors and regional divergence. In northern markets, temperature changes led to higher production costs, while downstream enterprises had winter stockpiling demands. Consequently, some holders maintained firm pricing attitudes, causing transaction centers to fluctuate slightly upward. However, towards the end of the month, suppliers reported poor sales, and market participants took a long-term bearish view, resulting in low entry enthusiasm. In southern markets, participants have gradually become desensitized to low mining operating rates. With supplies from northern regions acting as a supplement, and demand pressured by high sulfuric acid prices, downstream bargaining power intensified. The market transaction center trended lower amidst supply-demand maneuvering.

4. Outlook and Analysis

Chempricehub Forecast: Looking ahead to November's domestic aluminum fluoride market, although there are bullish expectations for fluorite, raw materials such as aluminum hydroxide and sulfuric acid are trading weakly. Enterprise production cost pressures continue to ease, and profit margins are recovering. On the supply side, some facilities in Shandong plan for maintenance shutdowns. Combined with the generally low base of industry operating rates, the tight supply pattern will likely persist even if production enthusiasm recovers. On the demand side, rigid procurement by electrolytic aluminum enterprises remains stable, and the optimization of tender pricing mechanisms continues to provide strong support for prices. Overall, the resonance between cost benefits and downstream demand support suggests that the aluminum fluoride market retains upward momentum, with the transaction center expected to reach the 13,000–13,200 RMB/ton range.