Petroleum hydrocarbon resin prices edge up as crude gains, C5 feedstock supply tightens

I. Key Market Focus

1. Crude Oil Markets: The market is monitoring the potential escalation of US-Iran tensions, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have heightened supply risks, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) rose by USD 2.12/bbl to USD 104.12/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +2.08%. ICE Brent futures (December contract) increased by USD 2.76/bbl to USD 117.64/bbl, a week-on-week gain of +2.40%. China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by CNY 8.3 to CNY 727.6/bbl during the day session but rebounded by CNY 30.9 to CNY 758.5/bbl in the night session.

2. Naphtha Prices: As of the 30th, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 1,082.25/ton, up USD 33/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 116.57/barrel, an increase of USD 3.89/barrel compared to the prior session.

3. Pyrolysis C5 and Mixed C5 Trends: Early last week, major producers in North China raised prices for industrial pyrolysis C5, while other regions remained stable. By Sunday, initial monthly execution prices in East and South China were adjusted upward. In Northern regions, private enterprise prices exceeded those of major producers, providing support to the latter. Mixed C5 prices recovered slightly this week; by Thursday, they were marginally higher than pyrolysis C5. Residual liquid, acting as a substitute component, lagged in price adjustments and remains below pyrolysis C5 levels, dragging down deep processing margins. In the deep processing sector, tight feedstock availability and rising costs pushed piperylene monomer inventory levels lower and prices higher. Although petroleum resin costs are supported, buying enthusiasm remains moderate, with purchases largely driven by rigid demand.

4. Pyrolysis C5 Residual Liquid: Last week, pyrolysis C5 residual liquid markets remained stable, executing existing contracts with sporadic price hikes. Boosted by Middle East conflicts, crude oil prices held high, pushing gasoline market prices up. Homogeneous product mixed C5 also saw improved sentiment. With positive market factors prevailing, pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices edged higher, and transaction volumes improved.

5. Piperylene: Piperylene prices rose last week. Feedstock supply remained low, and overall operating rates among C5 separation units were not high. Manufacturers faced minimal inventory pressure and held pending orders, supporting their reluctance to sell at lower prices. Downstream adhesive resin prices edged up, with production and sales balanced, maintaining consistent consumption of raw materials. The curing agent sector remained in deficit, though order volumes improved slightly week-on-week, sustaining rigid demand purchases. Overall, the market was dominated by tight supply, continuing the upward price trend. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from CNY 9,200 to 10,900/ton.

6. Isoprene: Isoprene prices continued to rise last week. Feedstock pyrolysis C5 prices edged up, and supply remained tight. Most C5 separation units maintained low operating rates, prolonging the tight supply scenario and supporting sellers' pricing stance. Downstream SIS prices were pushed up slightly; although new orders were weak, factory operating rates remained stable, ensuring rigid consumption of isoprene. Other downstream sectors had low inventories and decent capacity to accept goods. Under expectations of continued scarcity, chasing-high buying interest was stimulated, leading to a relatively active trading atmosphere this week. Mainstream bid prices in the East China market were reported at CNY 14,100–15,200/ton.

7. Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD): Domestic DCPD ex-factory prices continued to rise last week. Self-pickup prices ranged from CNY 10,100 to 10,400/ton, primarily supplied to long-term clients. Spot market supply was tight. Driven by downstream rigid demand, auction prices held at CNY 10,600/ton. Rising feedstock costs provided cost-side support, keeping the overall market firm.

8. Road Marking Paint C5 Petroleum Resin: Mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 9,850 to 11,000/ton last week. Temporary maintenance shutdowns at some plants reduced supply, while non-deep processing directions continued to face losses. However, downstream acceptance was weak, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions with prices showing mixed movements.

9. Adhesive C5 Petroleum Resin: Mainstream prices for piperylene-based adhesive C5 petroleum resin rose by CNY 200/ton to range between CNY 12,000 and 13,600/ton. Cyclohexane-free adhesive C5 petroleum resin prices ranged from CNY 10,800 to 11,200/ton. Tight feedstock led to lower operating rates, and low supply volumes are expected to persist until year-end. Feedstock prices continue to edge up, passing cost pressures and shortages downstream. Terminal rigid demand remains steady, supporting a stable yet gradually rising price trend.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 temporarily stable; Isoprene rising; Piperylene rising; Dicyclopentadiene rising; C5 Petroleum Resin prices seeing sporadic increases.

II. Price Summary Table

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Following the price adjustment for pyrolysis C5 in East and South China over the weekend, other regions are expected to follow suit. Private enterprise prices remained stable yesterday. Mixed C5 prices were adjusted upward to approximately CNY 8,000/ton yesterday; the market is watching whether residual liquid prices will follow. Regarding pentadienes, price transmission is upward, but downstream acceptance for SIS and petroleum resins remains strictly driven by rigid demand. Overall, terminal demand in the chemical sector remains soft.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to strengthen. Amidst Middle East conflicts, crude oil prices remain high, pushing gasoline market prices up and facilitating shipments. Refinery mixed C5 (a homogeneous product) is scarce and expensive. Supported by homogeneous products and firm feedstock trends, Chempricehub anticipates a potential upside for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices in the near term.

Intraday crude oil prices showed mixed movements, having limited impact on the market. Gasoline prices rose over the weekend, cooling the trading atmosphere. Weekend refinery mixed C5 prices increased. Chempricehub expects the mixed C5 market to maintain firm pricing today.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. While tight supply continues to provide support, downstream majors lack momentum to push prices higher. Persistent losses raise the risk of operating rate adjustments, suggesting prices will likely stabilize in the short term.

Piperylene is expected to stabilize. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, supporting firm pricing. However, with prices already at high levels, downward transmission resistance remains significant. The market is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) is expected to maintain a firm trend. There are no immediate increases in spot supply in the short term, while downstream rigid demand persists despite high costs. Amidst supply-demand dynamics, high-level price trends are unlikely to diminish.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, feedstock C5 prices continue to rise, further increasing cost pressures. With scarce spot inventory in the short term, manufacturers are expected to continue raising prices based on cost considerations. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, peak-season downstream demand remains concentrated. Strong cost support and reduced supply volumes are expected to keep negotiation prices stable with slight upward bias.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)