Morning Market Update on the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Highlights

1. Crude Oil: The U.S. toned down expectations of strikes on Iran, easing supply risk concerns and causing international crude oil prices to fall. NYMEX WTI crude futures (December contract) closed at $86.85/bbl, down $3.98/bbl (-4.38% WoW); ICE Brent crude futures (January contract) closed at $92.57/bbl, down $5.75/bbl (-5.85% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (January 2027 contract) fell by CNY 1.1 to CNY 630.7/bbl; the night session dropped by CNY 25 to CNY 605.7/bbl.
2. Naphtha: As of November 9, the Asian naphtha market was closed for holidays. As of November 6, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 928.25/tonne, up USD 32/tonne from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 99.45/barrel, up USD 3.03/barrel from the previous trading day.
3. Pyrolysis C5: Yesterday, domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major enterprises were cut by CNY 200/tonne, with current major enterprise prices around CNY 7,400/tonne. However, following the drop in crude oil, Shandong mixed C5 prices fell to approximately CNY 6,750–6,900/tonne, lower than pyrolysis C5 prices. This increases cost pressure for deep processing enterprises and makes it more difficult to sell residual liquid. The decline in crude oil has intensified bearish sentiment across the industry.
4. C5 Residual Liquid: Yesterday, prices for domestic pyrolysis C5 residual liquid remained stable in some regions, while dipping slightly in scattered markets. After gasoline market prices fell yesterday, trading activity was lackluster. Mixed C5, a similar product, followed the downward trend, though transaction volumes improved slightly. End-user sentiment remains weak; some C5 residual liquid markets are holding steady in wait-and-see mode, while others saw minor price drops.
5. Isoprene (1,3-Pentadiene): Domestic isoprene listing prices remained temporarily stable yesterday. Affected by falling residual liquid prices, the China Index edged slightly lower. Although feedstock pyrolysis C5 prices declined, supply remains limited, separation plant loads remain low, and factories are maintaining stability in a wait-and-see posture. Mainstream ex-factory prices range from CNY 9,200–10,900/tonne.
6. Iso-pentadiene (Piperylene): Domestic iso-pentadiene markets remained stable yesterday. Despite the reduction in feedstock pyrolysis C5 prices, the tight supply pattern for the product itself continues, with limited tradable resources available. Today’s market is expected to consolidate temporarily. Mainstream offer prices in East China range from CNY 14,900–15,500/tonne.
7. Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD): Self-pickup prices for DCPD ranged from CNY 10,300–10,600/tonne yesterday. Lower-end prices primarily served stable customers, while auction prices held at CNY 10,600/tonne. Despite declines in feedstock and crude oil prices, spot supply remains scarce. With demand limited to rigid needs, the market is consolidating.
8. Road Marking Paint C5 Petroleum Resin: Mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 9,850–11,200/tonne yesterday. Early in the week, pyrolysis C5 shipment prices retreated, but resin manufacturers still face potential rising cost pressures. Overall willingness to offer discounts is low, while downstream demand is gradually contracting. Market transactions are deadlocked, and negotiated prices remain stable.
9. Adhesive Grade C5 Petroleum Resin: Mainstream prices for isoprene adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 12,000–13,600/tonne, while de-cyclized adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 10,800–11,200/tonne. Volatile downward trends in international crude oil have heightened end-users' cautious purchasing behavior. In the short term, cost pressures and supply shortages among resin manufacturers dominate the market. Trading activity is average, and prices are running steadily.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 declined; Iso-pentadiene stable; Isoprene stable; Dicyclopentadiene rose; C5 petroleum resin prices saw sporadic increases.

II. Price Summary

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: CNY/tonne)

III. Market Outlook

Crude oil closing prices fell yesterday. Shandong mixed C5 prices dropped to approximately CNY 6,750–6,900/tonne and are expected to continue declining, widening the gap with pyrolysis C5 prices. Difficulty in selling residual liquid poses a downside risk. Additionally, the combination of previous high-price levels and sustained crude oil declines has led to widespread bearish sentiment within the industry, which may accelerate the downward trend. End-user demand will be suppressed by this sentiment, putting pressure on the resin sector. While inventory levels for pentadienes are currently low, downside risks from both upstream and downstream sectors pose potential threats to monomer prices.

Pyrolysis C5 Residual Liquid: A downward trend is expected. Improved conditions regarding Middle East conflicts have led to a clear decline in international crude oil. Domestic demand shows no improvement, leaving room for further decreases in the gasoline market. Refinery mixed C5, a similar product, is following the downtrend. Bearish sentiment dominates the market; Chempricehub predicts that the recent C5 residual liquid market has room for further decline.

Mixed C5: Overnight crude oil declines have dampened traders' enthusiasm. Gasoline market prices fell yesterday, resulting in poor trading activity. Mixed C5 prices dropped yesterday, improving shipment atmosphere slightly, but overall market sentiment remains bearish. Chempricehub predicts that today's mixed C5 market still has room for decline.

Iso-pentadiene: Temporary consolidation is expected. Tight overall supply supports prices, but significant crude oil declines have made traders cautious. Prices are expected to hold steady in a wait-and-see mode.

Isoprene (1,3-Pentadiene): Temporary consolidation is expected. Factories generally face no inventory pressure, providing support. However, given the sharp drop in crude oil and poor performance of downstream orders, isoprene prices are expected to remain stable in a wait-and-see posture.

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD): Consolidation is expected to continue. Short-term spot supply increments are absent, while rigid demand persists. Under supply-demand balancing, the market will likely consolidate. Attention today is focused on the Daqing Huake auction.

C5 Petroleum Resin: For road marking applications, manufacturer spot availability is scarce in the short term. Downstream rigid demand continues to retreat, and international crude oil fluctuates downward, keeping negotiated prices stable. For adhesive applications, peak season downstream demand is below expectations, but limited manufacturer supply keeps negotiated prices relatively firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

Note:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with price changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with price changes within 0–3%.