Morning Market Briefing on the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Points

1. The U.S. Democratic Party won the midterm elections, leading market expectations that the U.S.-Iran conflict will de-escalate. Concerns over supply risks have diminished, causing international crude oil prices to fall. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for the December contract closed at $88.12/bbl, down $7.97/bbl (-8.29% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures for the January contract closed at $94.62/bbl, down $8.98/bbl (-8.67% WoW). China INE crude oil futures for the December 2026 contract fell by 18.7 yuan to 676.2 yuan/bbl; night session prices dropped by 47.8 yuan to 628.4 yuan/bbl.

2. As of November 4, Japanese naphtha closed at $977.75/ton, down $26.75/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $105.93/barrel, down $3.41/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic cracked C5 prices from major enterprises remained stable. With crude oil closing lower, Shandong mixed C5 prices pulled back, and intraday transactions were weak, creating bearish pressure on residual liquid prices, which also saw weak trading. In terms of deep processing, piperylene monomer prices rose. Resin prices received cost support, but buyer enthusiasm remained weak.

4. Yesterday, domestic cracked C5 residual liquid prices stabilized. Following a decline in gasoline market prices yesterday, improvements in shipment sentiment were limited. Prices for similar products, such as mixed C5, declined, resulting in average market transactions. Although market sentiment was poor, supported by high-level pricing for cracked C5, factories maintained firm pricing strategies. Facing negative factors at the terminal end, market buying and selling activities remained limited.

5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market saw localized increases. Factories continued low-load operations, with tight overall supply providing price support. Downstream demand followed essential needs, driving up transaction centers for low-priced resources. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,900 yuan/ton.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market remained firm, with localized listing price adjustments upward. Tight in-market supply persisted, and downstream essential demand absorbed existing inventory, pushing transaction centers higher. Mainstream bid prices in East China ranged from 14,900 to 15,400 yuan/ton.

7. Yesterday, the domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) market maintained a steady trend. Self-pickup prices ranged from 10,100 to 10,600 yuan/ton, with the lower end primarily supplying stable customers. Auction prices held at 10,600 yuan/ton. Spot availability remained scarce; under downstream essential usage requirements, the market showed signs of stalemate.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,850 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Terminal procurement maintained essential levels, while non-deep processing directions continued to incur losses, exacerbating cost pressures for resin manufacturers. Market transactions were stagnant, and negotiated prices remained stable.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 12,000 to 13,600 yuan/ton, while hydrogenated adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 10,800 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Raw material shortages led to reduced operating loads, with low supply volumes expected to persist until year-end. Furthermore, raw material prices continued to rise slightly, transmitting cost pressures and scarcity to downstream sectors. Terminal essential demand remained stable, with prices trending upward by 100–200 yuan/ton.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 remains temporarily stable; isoprene sees localized rises; piperylene sees localized rises; DCPD remains temporarily stable; C5 petroleum resin prices show sporadic increases.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

III. Market Outlook

Yesterday’s crude oil close continued to decline, weakening expectations for Shandong mixed C5 prices. Industry participants exhibited clear wait-and-see attitudes, while the gasoline market performance remained relatively soft. Amid falling crude prices, widespread caution prevailed. Isoprene and piperylene monomers remained firm due to low inventory levels and tight supply. However, downstream procurement for petroleum resins maintained only essential levels, hindering effective cost transmission. Overall, cracked C5 prices remain temporarily stable, with private enterprise auction prices declining, narrowing the price gap between state-owned and private enterprises.

The domestic cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to face downward pressure. There is no improvement in domestic demand, and the gasoline market has room for further declines. Refinery shipments of similar product, mixed C5, are sluggish. Although raw material trends remain firm, the terminal market is bearish. Chempricehub anticipates potential downside for cracked C5 residual liquid prices in the near term.

Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly, dampening market entry confidence. Yesterday’s gasoline market prices fell, resulting in poor trading sentiment. Refinery mixed C5 prices slipped slightly yesterday. Under the pressure of falling crude prices, Chempricehub predicts that today’s mixed C5 market will primarily follow a downward trend.

Isoprene is expected to stabilize and consolidate. While tight overall supply continues to provide support, the three consecutive days of crude oil declines may shift trader sentiment toward caution, leading to a temporary stabilization and wait-and-see approach regarding prices.

Piperylene is expected to stabilize and consolidate. The absence of significant inventory pressure at factories provides support; however, given the three consecutive drops in crude oil and generally weak downstream performance, piperylene prices are expected to remain stable amid observation.

DCPD is expected to maintain a sideways trend. In the short term, there is no increase in spot supply, while downstream essential usage persists despite high costs. Supply-demand dynamics suggest a continuation of consolidation.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, manufacturer spot inventories are scarce in the short term, but downstream essential demand continues to recede, keeping negotiated prices largely stable. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, peak-season downstream demand remains concentrated, but willingness to accept higher prices has weakened, leading to a stabilization after recent price hikes.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 Tons)