I. Key Points
Core Logic: The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, leading to volatile downward trends.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 14 | Oct 13 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Central Delivery | 13,525 | 13,550 | -0.18% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Farm Pickup | 13,300 | 13,275 | 0.19% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,610 | 1,610 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 106.06 | 105.69 | 0.35% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16,300 | 16,400 | -0.61% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. CFR China is in USD/ton; crude oil is in USD/barrel; all other units are in CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices refer to point-in-time values from the two preceding working weeks, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate represents period-over-period variation. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, crude oil and naphtha prices are fluctuating at high levels, maintaining bottom-line support on the cost side. Some sellers are reluctant to offer low prices, indicating strong hoarding sentiment. However, downstream demand remains weak, with enterprise operating rates recovering slowly. Procurement follow-through for butadiene has been mediocre, with actual transaction intentions leaning towards lower price levels. Some sellers may be inclined to slightly reduce their offers. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is expected to trend weaker with volatility.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Value | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.82 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 4,137.98 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 4.60 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Fri 17:00 PM | 69.71% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 11.28 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data within a 0–3% change range. |
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