Morning Market Brief for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Focus Areas

1. Middle East tensions remain unstable, and prospects for US-Iran negotiations are unclear, driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $86.53/bbl, up $0.49/bbl (+0.57% WoW); ICE Brent futures (January contract) closed at $92.76/bbl, up $1.27/bbl (+1.39% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (January 2027 contract) fell by RMB 15.2 to RMB 584.1/bbl in the day session, then rose by RMB 13.2 to RMB 597.3/bbl in the night session.

2. As of November 11, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 866.75/ton, up USD 6.5/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 92.95/barrel, up USD 0.97/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major producers remained weak. Shandong mixed C5 prices dropped to approximately RMB 6,600/ton, with an order fulfillment rate of 56%. Sales of residual liquid were difficult. Overall, significant recent declines in fuel oil components have exerted bearish pressure on the market. From a downstream perspective, market sentiment is weak, buying enthusiasm is low, posing potential downside risks across the entire industrial chain.

4. Prices for most pyrolysis C5 residual liquids declined yesterday. Following the drop in domestic gasoline prices, sales activity picked up slightly. Mixed C5, as a substitute product, followed suit with price declines, though market transactions remained flat. Under the influence of substitute products, the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market trended downward yesterday.

5. The domestic piperylene market operated steadily yesterday. The China Index dipped slightly due to the decline in residual liquid prices. Weak crude oil trends are competing with tight supply conditions for the product itself. Market participants are operating cautiously, and negotiations are subdued. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from RMB 9,200–10,900/ton.

6. The domestic isoprene market remained stable yesterday. Tradeable resources within the market are limited, and both suppliers and buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding future prospects, primarily fulfilling existing orders and long-term contracts. Mainstream offer/bid prices in the East China market ranged from RMB 14,900–15,500/ton.

7. Self-pickup prices for domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) stood at RMB 10,300–10,600/ton yesterday, with the lower end mainly serving established customers. Auction prices held steady at RMB 10,600/ton. Spot market supply has not increased; supported by rigid downstream demand, prices maintain a firm trend.

8. Mainstream prices for road marking paint-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 9,850–11,200/ton yesterday. Downstream buyers maintained only rigid demand procurement. With the overall market still weak, sales pressure on resin manufacturers has increased, leading to sporadic minor price adjustments during negotiations.

9. Mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 12,000–13,600/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 10,800–11,200/ton. Persistent volatility and downward trends in international crude oil prices have intensified cautious purchasing among end-users. However, short-term cost pressures on resin manufacturers and supply shortages are dominating the market, keeping negotiation centers consolidating at high levels.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 declined; Isoprene stable; Piperylene stable; DCPD consolidating; C5 petroleum resin prices held steady.

II. Price Summary Table

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industrial Chain Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Crude oil closed higher, which may help stabilize Shandong mixed C5 prices. However, current Shandong regional mixed C5 prices are at RMB 6,600/ton, and residual liquid prices remain weak. The price gap between residual liquid and feedstock pyrolysis C5 has widened to RMB 800/ton, creating obvious bearish pressure on feedstock pyrolysis C5, suggesting a potential downward trend for pyrolysis C5.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to see catch-up declines. The gasoline market has stopped falling and stabilized. Refineries holding mixed C5 inventory are maintaining stability. Market sentiment remains bearish; Chempricehub Information expects the recent pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market to have room for further catch-up declines.

Overnight crude oil rebounded slightly, boosting market participation. Yesterday, domestic gasoline prices fell, increasing sales activity. Today, both crude oil and gasoline markets are showing positive performance. Chempricehub Information predicts that mixed C5 prices will stop falling and stabilize today.

Isoprene prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Tight overall supply continues to support prices, but recent crude oil volatility has made traders cautious. Prices are expected to hold steady as the market waits and sees.

Piperylene prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Lack of inventory pressure at plants provides support; however, recent crude oil volatility and poor downstream order flow suggest piperylene prices will likely hold steady amid a wait-and-see attitude.

DCPD is expected to maintain a consolidating trend. In the short term, spot supply shows no increase, while rigid demand persists. Amid supply-demand balancing, the market is expected to consolidate.

For road marking paint-grade C5 petroleum resin, manufacturer spot inventories are scarce in the short term. However, declining rigid downstream demand and low international crude oil prices exacerbate bearish risks, keeping negotiation prices stable for now. For adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin, peak-season downstream demand is below expectations, but manufacturer supply volumes are low. Supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term, keeping negotiation prices relatively firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industrial Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)